Kirk Cousins
QB
Las Vegas Raiders▲ Hot
This is how QBs have played against the Chiefs in the 2026 season.
| Wk | Team | Player | Cmp | Att | PaYd | PaTD | INT | Car | RuYd | RuTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  DEN | Bo Nix | 17 | 28 | 131 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 5.4 |
| 2 |  IND | Daniel Jones | 22 | 31 | 210 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 11.4 |
| 3 |  MIA | Malik Willis | 20 | 36 | 210 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 56 | 0 | 10.0 |
| Average | 19.7 | 31.7 | 183.7 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 5.0 | 22.7 | 0.0 | 8.9 | ||
| Median | 20.0 | 31.0 | 210.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 10.0 | 0.0 | 10.0 | ||
| High | 22 | 36 | 210 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 56 | 0 | 11.4 | ||
| Low | 17 | 28 | 131 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 5.4 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Kirk Cousins should do vs the ChiefsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Chiefs, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Kirk Cousins has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Chiefs opponents to line them up with: the best QB they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Kirk Cousins will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Chiefs avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Kirk Cousins's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Kirk Cousins usually produces.
Projected is Kirk Cousins's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Chiefs were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Cmp | Att | PaYd | PaTD | INT | Car | RuYd | RuTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MIA | 21 | 30 | 160 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -6 | 0 | 13.8 |
| 2 | LAC | 19 | 29 | 253 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 20.2 |
| 3 | NO | 22 | 33 | 248 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 22.2 |
| 4 | KC | 31 | 52 | 365 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22.6 |
| 5 | NE | 19 | 28 | 243 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13.7 |
| 6 | BUF | 23 | 41 | 313 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18.5 |
| 7 | LA | 26 | 44 | 295 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 20.4 |
| 8 | NYJ | 19 | 26 | 247 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 28.2 |
| Cousins avg | 22.5 | 35.4 | 265.5 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.1 | 20.0 | |
| Chiefs QB1 avg | 19.7 | 31.7 | 183.7 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 5.0 | 22.7 | 0.0 | 8.9 | |
| Difference | -2.8 | -3.7 | -81.8 | -1.7 | +0.4 | +2.5 | +21.8 | -0.1 | -11.0 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Cousins averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Prediction & chance to scoreKirk Cousins vs the Chiefs
Prediction for Kirk Cousins
Nobody knows which slot Kirk Cousins will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Chiefs.
I predict about 12.0 points for Kirk Cousins if playing as a QB1. Kirk Cousins has averaged 18.7 over 3 games, and the Chiefs have given up 8.9 to QB1s (-48% vs the league average of 17.1).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Kirk Cousins scored: Wk 1 13.8, Wk 2 20.2, Wk 3 22.2. Average 18.7; weighted toward recent games it is 15.8.
2. The defense. Over 3 games, the Chiefs allowed 8.9 points to their opponent's QB1. The league average for that slot is 17.1, so that is -48%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 3 defensive games, only 50% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a -24% adjustment (x0.76).
4. Result. 15.8 x 0.76 = 12.0. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Kirk Cousins is to reach it as a QB1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (12.0) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 5.8 points, leaning on Kirk Cousins's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical QB swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 12.
With only 3 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- QB1s have averaged 183.7 passing yards, 0.7 passing TDs and 22.7 rushing yards against the Chiefs across 3 games.
- The Chiefs allow 8.9 PPR points to QB1s, -48% versus the league average of 17.1 (ranked 32 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a tough matchup.
- 0 of 3 games reached 15+ PPR points. Scores range from 5.4 to 11.4 (median 10.0).
- Every QB1 in the sample cleared 120 passing yards.
- QB1s scored a touchdown in 2 of 3 games (67%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.