Zach Ertz
TE
Philadelphia Eagles
- Teammate DeVonta Smith (a top target) is questionable.
A hurt top target or lead back nudges the projection up a little, since their work tends to shift to teammates. QB and offensive-line flags are shown for context but do not change the number.
This is how TEs have played against the Cowboys in the 2026 season.
TE1 = the highest-scoring TE against Cowboys in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  NYG | Isaiah Likely | 8 | 8 | 78 | 2 | 27.8 |
| 2 |  WAS | Colson Yankoff | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 | 2.4 |
| 3 |  BAL | Matthew Hibner | 2 | 2 | 23 | 1 | 10.3 |
| 4 |  HOU | Cade Stover | 1 | 1 | 20 | 0 | 3.0 |
| 5 |  TB | Cade Otton | 4 | 3 | 25 | 0 | 5.5 |
| 6 |  GB | Tucker Kraft | 8 | 5 | 37 | 0 | 8.7 |
| Average | 4.0 | 3.3 | 32.8 | 0.5 | 9.6 | ||
| Median | 3.0 | 2.5 | 24.0 | 0.0 | 7.1 | ||
| High | 8 | 8 | 78 | 2 | 27.8 | ||
| Low | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 | 2.4 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Zach Ertz should do vs the CowboysSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Cowboys, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Zach Ertz has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Cowboys opponents to line them up with: the best TE they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Zach Ertz will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Cowboys avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Zach Ertz's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Zach Ertz usually produces.
Projected is Zach Ertz's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Cowboys were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | CHI | 2 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 1.9 |
| 4 | LA | 4 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 3.3 |
| 5 | JAX | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 |
| Ertz avg | 2.7 | 1.0 | 7.3 | 0.0 | 1.7 | |
| Cowboys TE1 avg | 4.0 | 3.3 | 32.8 | 0.5 | 9.6 | |
| Difference | +1.3 | +2.3 | +25.5 | +0.5 | +7.9 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Ertz averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Prediction & chance to scoreZach Ertz vs the Cowboys
Prediction for Zach Ertz
Nobody knows which slot Zach Ertz will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Cowboys.
I predict about 4.6 points for Zach Ertz if playing as a TE1. Zach Ertz has averaged 1.7 over 3 games, and the Cowboys have given up 9.6 to TE1s (-9% vs the league average of 10.5).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Zach Ertz scored: Wk 3 1.9, Wk 4 3.3, Wk 5 0.0. Average 1.7; weighted toward recent games it is 4.8.
2. The defense. Over 6 games, the Cowboys allowed 9.6 points to their opponent's TE1. The league average for that slot is 10.5, so that is -9%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 6 defensive games, only 67% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a -6% adjustment (x0.94).
4. Result. 4.8 x 0.94 = 4.6. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Zach Ertz is to reach it as a TE1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (4.6) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 2.2 points, leaning on Zach Ertz's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical TE swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 5.
With only 3 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- TE1s have averaged 3.3 receptions, 32.8 receiving yards and 0.5 receiving TDs against the Cowboys across 6 games.
- The Cowboys allow 9.6 PPR points to TE1s, -9% versus the league average of 10.5 (ranked 17 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a near-average matchup.
- Outlier: Week 1, Isaiah Likely (27.8 pts, 8 rec, 78 yds) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 9.6 vs 6.0; rec 3.3 vs 2.4; yds 32.8 vs 23.8. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- Outlier: Week 4, Cade Stover (3.0 pts) sits far below the other games and drags the averages down. Average with it vs without it: pts 9.6 vs 10.9. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 3 of 6 games reached 7+ PPR points. Scores range from 2.4 to 27.8 (median 7.1).
- TE1s scored a touchdown in 2 of 6 games (33%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.