Keenan Allen
WR
Indianapolis Colts▲ Hot
This is how WRs have played against the Cowboys in the 2026 season.
WR2 = the second-highest-scoring WR against Cowboys in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  NYG | Darnell Mooney | 2 | 2 | 27 | 0 | 4.7 |
| 2 |  WAS | Terry McLaurin | 9 | 2 | 50 | 0 | 7.0 |
| 3 |  BAL | Chris Moore | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 7.4 |
| 4 |  HOU | Jaylin Noel | 3 | 3 | 85 | 0 | 11.9 |
| 5 |  TB | Tez Johnson | 1 | 1 | 64 | 0 | 7.4 |
| 6 |  GB | Christian Watson | 8 | 3 | 64 | 0 | 9.4 |
| 7 |  PHI | Marquise Brown | 5 | 2 | 30 | 0 | 5.0 |
| 8 |  ARI | Kendrick Bourne | 2 | 1 | 29 | 0 | 3.9 |
| Average | 3.9 | 1.9 | 44.1 | 0.1 | 7.1 | ||
| Median | 2.5 | 2.0 | 40.0 | 0.0 | 7.2 | ||
| High | 9 | 3 | 85 | 1 | 11.9 | ||
| Low | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 3.9 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Keenan Allen should do vs the CowboysSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Cowboys, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Keenan Allen has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Cowboys opponents to line them up with: the best WR they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Keenan Allen will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Cowboys avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Keenan Allen's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Keenan Allen usually produces.
Projected is Keenan Allen's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Cowboys were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BAL | 6 | 6 | 32 | 0 | 9.2 |
| 2 | KC | 5 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 1.5 |
| 3 | HOU | 9 | 6 | 63 | 1 | 18.3 |
| 5 | PIT | 9 | 5 | 45 | 0 | 9.5 |
| 6 | TEN | 11 | 8 | 82 | 0 | 16.2 |
| 7 | MIN | 3 | 3 | 31 | 0 | 6.1 |
| 8 | JAX | 7 | 7 | 67 | 0 | 13.7 |
| Allen avg | 7.1 | 5.1 | 46.4 | 0.1 | 10.6 | |
| Cowboys WR2 avg | 3.9 | 1.9 | 44.1 | 0.1 | 7.1 | |
| Difference | -3.3 | -3.3 | -2.3 | -0.0 | -3.6 | |
| Projected as WR2 | 6.2 | 4.4 | 40.0 | 0.1 | 9.5 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Allen averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Start / Sit · Keenan AllenGood confidence · 10.6 proj pts5/10 start
- Keenan Allen averages 10.6 PPR points over 7 games (recent-weighted 11.2) and has played as the team's WR2.
- The Cowboys have allowed 7.1 points to WR2s over 8 games (-19% vs league). The model applies 73% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a -14% adjustment.
- Last season's average (10.7) is blended in at 22% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Game environment +7%: Vegas total 51.5, implied 23.0 points for IND (league avg 22.6); Underdog by 5.5: likely to pass more while trailing; Indoors: no weather effect, a small boost for passing and kicking.
- Opposing-defense injuries (+4%): Opposing starter Jalen Thompson (CB) is on IR, which helps the passing game. Opposing starter Caleb Downs (S) is questionable, which helps the passing game.
- Projection: 10.6 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level WR scores about 12.2 and a top-tier one about 20.9.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Prediction & chance to scoreKeenan Allen vs the Cowboys
Prediction for Keenan Allen
Nobody knows which slot Keenan Allen will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Cowboys.
I predict about 9.5 points for Keenan Allen if playing as a WR2. Keenan Allen has averaged 10.6 over 7 games, and the Cowboys have given up 7.1 to WR2s (-19% vs the league average of 8.8).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Keenan Allen scored: Wk 1 9.2, Wk 2 1.5, Wk 3 18.3, Wk 5 9.5, Wk 6 16.2, Wk 7 6.1, Wk 8 13.7. Average 10.6; weighted toward recent games it is 11.1.
2. The defense. Over 8 games, the Cowboys allowed 7.1 points to their opponent's WR2. The league average for that slot is 8.8, so that is -19%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 8 defensive games, only 73% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a -14% adjustment (x0.86).
4. Result. 11.1 x 0.86 = 9.5. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Keenan Allen is to reach it as a WR2.
Why this percentage?
The projection (9.5) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 5.9 points, leaning on Keenan Allen's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical WR swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 10.
With only 7 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- WR2s have averaged 1.9 receptions, 44.1 receiving yards and 0.1 receiving TDs against the Cowboys across 8 games.
- The Cowboys allow 7.1 PPR points to WR2s, -19% versus the league average of 8.8 (ranked 28 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a tough matchup.
- Outlier: Week 4, Jaylin Noel (85 yds) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: yds 44.1 vs 38.3. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- Outlier: Week 3, Chris Moore (4 yds) sits far below the other games and drags the averages down. Average with it vs without it: yds 44.1 vs 49.9. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 1 of 8 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 3.9 to 11.9 (median 7.2).
- WR2s scored a touchdown in 1 of 8 games (13%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.