Chris Moore
WR
Baltimore Ravens
This is how WRs have played against the Jaguars in the 2026 season.
WR3 = the third-highest-scoring WR against Jaguars in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  CLE | Jerry Jeudy | 4 | 2 | 26 | 0 | 4.6 |
| 2 |  DEN | Troy Franklin | 2 | 1 | 27 | 0 | 3.7 |
| 3 |  NE | DeMario Douglas | 5 | 1 | 38 | 0 | 4.8 |
| 4 |  CIN | Mitchell Tinsley | 7 | 3 | 49 | 0 | 7.9 |
| 5 |  PHI | Makai Lemon | 7 | 5 | 43 | 0 | 9.3 |
| 6 |  HOU | Marvin Harrison Jr. | 4 | 3 | 34 | 0 | 6.4 |
| 8 |  IND | Laquon Treadwell | 2 | 1 | 18 | 0 | 2.8 |
| Average | 4.4 | 2.3 | 33.6 | 0.0 | 5.6 | ||
| Median | 4.0 | 2.0 | 34.0 | 0.0 | 4.8 | ||
| High | 7 | 5 | 49 | 0 | 9.3 | ||
| Low | 2 | 1 | 18 | 0 | 2.8 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Chris Moore should do vs the JaguarsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Jaguars, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Chris Moore has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Jaguars opponents to line them up with: the best WR they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Chris Moore will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Jaguars avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Chris Moore's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Chris Moore usually produces.
Projected is Chris Moore's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Jaguars were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | IND | 2 | 1 | 53 | 0 | 6.3 |
| 2 | NO | 3 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 1.6 |
| 3 | DAL | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 7.4 |
| Moore avg | 2.0 | 1.0 | 21.0 | 0.3 | 5.1 | |
| Jaguars WR3 avg | 4.4 | 2.3 | 33.6 | 0.0 | 5.6 | |
| Difference | +2.4 | +1.3 | +12.6 | -0.3 | +0.5 | |
| Projected as WR3 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 25.3 | 0.4 | 6.1 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Moore averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Start / Sit · Chris MooreGood confidence · 4.6 proj pts1/10 start
- Chris Moore averages 5.1 PPR points over 3 games (recent-weighted 5.2) and has played as the team's WR3.
- The Jaguars have allowed 5.6 points to WR3s over 7 games (+29% vs league). The model applies 70% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a +20% adjustment.
- Last season's average (4.8) is blended in at 40% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Game environment -12%: Vegas total 39.5, implied 14.8 points for BAL (league avg 22.6); Underdog by 10: likely to pass more while trailing; Mild weather (68F, 1 mph wind): no weather adjustment.
- QB change: Joe Fagnano is now throwing (6.4 yds/att vs 8.9 earlier), x0.85.
- Opposing-defense injuries (+2%): Opposing starter Travon Walker (DL) is questionable, which helps the passing game. Opposing starter DaVon Hamilton (DL) is on IR, which helps the passing game.
- Projection: 4.6 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level WR scores about 12.2 and a top-tier one about 20.9.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Prediction & chance to scoreChris Moore vs the Jaguars
Prediction for Chris Moore
Nobody knows which slot Chris Moore will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Jaguars.
I predict about 6.1 points for Chris Moore if playing as a WR3. Chris Moore has averaged 5.1 over 3 games, and the Jaguars have given up 5.6 to WR3s (+29% vs the league average of 4.4).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Chris Moore scored: Wk 1 6.3, Wk 2 1.6, Wk 3 7.4. Average 5.1; weighted toward recent games it is 5.1.
2. The defense. Over 7 games, the Jaguars allowed 5.6 points to their opponent's WR3. The league average for that slot is 4.4, so that is +29%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 7 defensive games, only 70% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +20% adjustment (x1.20).
4. Result. 5.1 x 1.20 = 6.1. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Chris Moore is to reach it as a WR3.
Why this percentage?
The projection (6.1) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 3.4 points, leaning on Chris Moore's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical WR swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 6.
With only 3 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- WR3s have averaged 2.3 receptions, 33.6 receiving yards and 0.0 receiving TDs against the Jaguars across 7 games.
- The Jaguars allow 5.6 PPR points to WR3s, +29% versus the league average of 4.4 (ranked 5 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a favorable matchup.
- Outlier: Week 5, Makai Lemon (5 rec) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: rec 2.3 vs 1.8. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 0 of 7 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 2.8 to 9.3 (median 4.8).
- WR3s scored a touchdown in 0 of 7 games (0%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.