Ka'imi Fairbairn
K
Houston Texans
This is how Ks have played against the Chargers in the 2026 season.
| Wk | Team | Player | FGM | FGA | 40+ | Lng | XP | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  ARI | Chad Ryland | 4 | 5 | 2 | 49 | 2 | 16.0 |
| 2 |  LV | Matt Gay | 1 | 1 | 1 | 59 | 3 | 8.0 |
| 3 |  BUF | Tyler Bass | 1 | 1 | 0 | 28 | 3 | 6.0 |
| 4 |  SEA | Jason Myers | 1 | 1 | 0 | 35 | 3 | 6.0 |
| 5 |  DEN | Wil Lutz | 3 | 4 | 0 | 36 | 2 | 11.0 |
| 6 |  KC | Harrison Butker | 3 | 4 | 2 | 50 | 1 | 13.0 |
| 8 |  LA | Brandon McManus | 1 | 1 | 0 | 30 | 3 | 6.0 |
| Average | 2.0 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 41.0 | 2.4 | 9.4 | ||
| Median | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 36.0 | 3.0 | 8.0 | ||
| High | 4 | 5 | 2 | 59 | 3 | 16.0 | ||
| Low | 1 | 1 | 0 | 28 | 1 | 6.0 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed. Kicker scoring: FG 3/4/5 by distance, XP 1, missed FG under 40 yds -1.
How Ka'imi Fairbairn should do vs the ChargersSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Chargers, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Ka'imi Fairbairn has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Chargers opponents to line them up with: the best K they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Ka'imi Fairbairn will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Chargers avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Ka'imi Fairbairn's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Ka'imi Fairbairn usually produces.
Projected is Ka'imi Fairbairn's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Chargers were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | FGM | FGA | 40+ | Lng | XP | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BUF | 1 | 1 | 1 | 58 | 4 | 9.0 |
| 2 | CIN | 2 | 3 | 1 | 45 | 0 | 7.0 |
| 3 | IND | 1 | 1 | 0 | 24 | 2 | 5.0 |
| 4 | DAL | 3 | 3 | 2 | 54 | 3 | 16.0 |
| 5 | TEN | 4 | 4 | 2 | 53 | 2 | 17.0 |
| 6 | JAX | 2 | 2 | 1 | 49 | 4 | 11.0 |
| 7 | NYG | 2 | 2 | 2 | 58 | 1 | 11.0 |
| Fairbairn avg | 2.1 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 48.7 | 2.3 | 10.9 | |
| Chargers K1 avg | 2.0 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 41.0 | 2.4 | 9.4 | |
| Difference | -0.1 | +0.1 | -0.6 | -7.7 | +0.1 | -1.4 | |
| Projected as K1 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 51.9 | 2.4 | 12.6 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Fairbairn averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Start / Sit · Ka'imi FairbairnGood confidence · 13.2 proj pts7/10 start
- Ka'imi Fairbairn averages 10.9 PPR points over 7 games (recent-weighted 11.5) and has played as the team's K1.
- The Chargers have allowed 9.4 points to K1s over 7 games (+9% vs league). The model applies 70% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a +7% adjustment.
- Last season's average (12.9) is blended in at 22% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Game environment +5%: Vegas total 40.5, implied 23.0 points for HOU (league avg 22.6); Favored by 5.5: leaning run-heavy late; Indoors: no weather effect, a small boost for passing and kicking.
- Projection: 13.2 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level K scores about 9.6 and a top-tier one about 14.8.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Prediction & chance to scoreKa'imi Fairbairn vs the Chargers
Prediction for Ka'imi Fairbairn
Nobody knows which slot Ka'imi Fairbairn will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Chargers.
I predict about 12.6 points for Ka'imi Fairbairn if playing as a K1. Ka'imi Fairbairn has averaged 10.9 over 7 games, and the Chargers have given up 9.4 to K1s (+9% vs the league average of 8.6).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Ka'imi Fairbairn scored: Wk 1 9.0, Wk 2 7.0, Wk 3 5.0, Wk 4 16.0, Wk 5 17.0, Wk 6 11.0, Wk 7 11.0. Average 10.9; weighted toward recent games it is 11.8.
2. The defense. Over 7 games, the Chargers allowed 9.4 points to their opponent's K1. The league average for that slot is 8.6, so that is +9%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 7 defensive games, only 70% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +7% adjustment (x1.07).
4. Result. 11.8 x 1.07 = 12.6. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Ka'imi Fairbairn is to reach it as a K1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (12.6) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 5.1 points, leaning on Ka'imi Fairbairn's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical K swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 13.
With only 7 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- K1s have averaged 2.0 field goals made, 2.4 field goal attempts and 2.4 extra points against the Chargers across 7 games.
- The Chargers allow 9.4 PPR points to K1s, +9% versus the league average of 8.6 (ranked 12 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a near-average matchup.
- Outlier: Week 1, Chad Ryland (16.0 pts, 4 FG) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 9.4 vs 8.3; FG 2.0 vs 1.7. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 4 of 7 games reached 8+ PPR points. Scores range from 6.0 to 16.0 (median 8.0).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.