Derrick Henry
RB
Baltimore Ravens▼ Cold
This is how RBs have played against the Buccaneers in the 2026 season.
RB1 = the highest-scoring RB against Buccaneers in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  CIN | Chase Brown | 16 | 56 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 22 | 0 | 18.8 |
| 2 |  CLE | Quinshon Judkins | 12 | 21 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 27 | 0 | 9.8 |
| 3 |  MIN | Aaron Jones | 17 | 58 | 0 | 6 | 5 | 34 | 0 | 14.2 |
| 4 |  GB | MarShawn Lloyd | 7 | 13 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 36 | 0 | 9.9 |
| 5 |  DAL | Javonte Williams | 12 | 45 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 17 | 0 | 14.2 |
| 6 |  PIT | Jaylen Warren | 14 | 50 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 28 | 0 | 9.8 |
| 7 |  CAR | Chuba Hubbard | 7 | 33 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 27 | 0 | 10.0 |
| 8 |  ATL | Bijan Robinson | 19 | 76 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7.6 |
| Average | 13.0 | 44.0 | 0.3 | 4.4 | 3.5 | 23.9 | 0.0 | 11.8 | ||
| Median | 13.0 | 47.5 | 0.0 | 5.0 | 4.5 | 27.0 | 0.0 | 9.9 | ||
| High | 19 | 76 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 36 | 0 | 18.8 | ||
| Low | 7 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7.6 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Derrick Henry should do vs the BuccaneersSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Buccaneers, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Derrick Henry has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Buccaneers opponents to line them up with: the best RB they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Derrick Henry will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Buccaneers avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Derrick Henry's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Derrick Henry usually produces.
Projected is Derrick Henry's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Buccaneers were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | IND | 24 | 144 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 | 35.3 |
| 2 | NO | 16 | 68 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 19 | 0 | 17.7 |
| 3 | DAL | 26 | 89 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21.9 |
| 4 | TEN | 23 | 73 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 15.9 |
| 5 | ATL | 24 | 102 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 18 | 1 | 21.0 |
| 6 | CLE | 17 | 58 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5.0 |
| 7 | CIN | 17 | 45 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 5.9 |
| 8 | BUF | 11 | 53 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 14.0 |
| Henry avg | 19.8 | 79.0 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 9.4 | 0.1 | 17.1 | |
| Buccaneers RB1 avg | 13.0 | 44.0 | 0.3 | 4.4 | 3.5 | 23.9 | 0.0 | 11.8 | |
| Difference | -6.8 | -35.0 | -0.8 | +2.6 | +2.0 | +14.5 | -0.1 | -5.3 | |
| Projected as RB1 | 15.9 | 63.6 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 7.5 | 0.1 | 11.7 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Henry averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Start / Sit · Derrick HenryGood confidence · 11.7 proj pts5/10 start
- Derrick Henry averages 17.1 PPR points over 8 games (recent-weighted 14.0) and has played as the team's RB1.
- The Buccaneers have allowed 11.8 points to RB1s over 8 games (-27% vs league). The model applies 73% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a -19% adjustment.
- Last season's average (16.4) is blended in at 20% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Projection: 11.7 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level RB scores about 13.1 and a top-tier one about 20.9.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Prediction & chance to scoreDerrick Henry vs the Buccaneers
Prediction for Derrick Henry
Nobody knows which slot Derrick Henry will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Buccaneers.
I predict about 11.7 points for Derrick Henry if playing as a RB1. Derrick Henry has averaged 17.1 over 8 games, and the Buccaneers have given up 11.8 to RB1s (-27% vs the league average of 16.1).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Derrick Henry scored: Wk 1 35.3, Wk 2 17.7, Wk 3 21.9, Wk 4 15.9, Wk 5 21.0, Wk 6 5.0, Wk 7 5.9, Wk 8 14.0. Average 17.1; weighted toward recent games it is 14.5.
2. The defense. Over 8 games, the Buccaneers allowed 11.8 points to their opponent's RB1. The league average for that slot is 16.1, so that is -27%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 8 defensive games, only 73% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a -19% adjustment (x0.81).
4. Result. 14.5 x 0.81 = 11.7. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Derrick Henry is to reach it as a RB1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (11.7) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 9.7 points, leaning on Derrick Henry's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical RB swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 12.
With only 8 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- RB1s have averaged 13.0 carries, 44.0 rushing yards and 3.5 receptions against the Buccaneers across 8 games.
- The Buccaneers allow 11.8 PPR points to RB1s, -27% versus the league average of 16.1 (ranked 31 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a tough matchup.
- Outlier: Week 1, Chase Brown (18.8 pts) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 11.8 vs 10.8. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- Outlier: Week 4, MarShawn Lloyd (13 rush yds) sits far below the other games and drags the averages down. Average with it vs without it: rush yds 44.0 vs 48.4. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 4 of 8 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 7.6 to 18.8 (median 9.9).
- RB1s scored a touchdown in 2 of 8 games (25%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.