Tyler Higbee
TE
Los Angeles Rams
- Teammate Davante Adams (a top target) is on IR, so Higbee may see more targets.
A hurt top target or lead back nudges the projection up a little, since their work tends to shift to teammates. QB and offensive-line flags are shown for context but do not change the number.
This is how TEs have played against the Bills in the 2026 season.
TE1 = the highest-scoring TE against Bills in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  HOU | Dalton Schultz | 8 | 4 | 35 | 0 | 7.5 |
| 2 |  DET | Sam LaPorta | 7 | 6 | 52 | 1 | 17.2 |
| 3 |  LAC | Oronde Gadsden II | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 |
| 4 |  NE | Hunter Henry | 5 | 5 | 62 | 0 | 11.2 |
| Average | 5.8 | 3.8 | 37.3 | 0.3 | 9.0 | ||
| Median | 6.0 | 4.5 | 43.5 | 0.0 | 9.3 | ||
| High | 8 | 6 | 62 | 1 | 17.2 | ||
| Low | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Tyler Higbee should do vs the BillsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Bills, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Tyler Higbee has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Bills opponents to line them up with: the best TE they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Tyler Higbee will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Bills avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Tyler Higbee's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Tyler Higbee usually produces.
Projected is Tyler Higbee's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Bills were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SF | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 1.2 |
| 3 | DEN | 11 | 8 | 62 | 1 | 20.2 |
| 4 | PHI | 6 | 5 | 67 | 0 | 11.7 |
| 5 | BUF | 6 | 5 | 83 | 0 | 13.3 |
| 6 | ARI | 4 | 4 | 22 | 0 | 4.2 |
| 7 | LV | 3 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 3.4 |
| 8 | LAC | 2 | 1 | 14 | 0 | 2.4 |
| Higbee avg | 4.9 | 3.9 | 39.1 | 0.1 | 8.1 | |
| Bills TE1 avg | 5.8 | 3.8 | 37.3 | 0.3 | 9.0 | |
| Difference | +0.9 | -0.1 | -1.9 | +0.1 | +0.9 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Higbee averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Prediction & chance to scoreTyler Higbee vs the Bills
Prediction for Tyler Higbee
Nobody knows which slot Tyler Higbee will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Bills.
I predict about 9.4 points for Tyler Higbee if playing as a TE1. Tyler Higbee has averaged 11.0 over 3 games, and the Bills have given up 9.0 to TE1s (-13% vs the league average of 10.3).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Tyler Higbee scored: Wk 1 1.2, Wk 3 20.2, Wk 4 11.7. Average 11.0; weighted toward recent games it is 10.2.
2. The defense. Over 4 games, the Bills allowed 9.0 points to their opponent's TE1. The league average for that slot is 10.3, so that is -13%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 4 defensive games, only 57% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a -7% adjustment (x0.93).
4. Result. 10.2 x 0.93 = 9.4. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Tyler Higbee is to reach it as a TE1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (9.4) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 7.6 points, leaning on Tyler Higbee's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical TE swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 9.
With only 3 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- TE1s have averaged 3.8 receptions, 37.3 receiving yards and 0.3 receiving TDs against the Bills across 4 games.
- The Bills allow 9.0 PPR points to TE1s, -13% versus the league average of 10.3 (ranked 18 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a tough matchup.
- Outlier: Week 3, Oronde Gadsden II (0.0 pts, 0 rec, 0 yds) sits far below the other games and drags the averages down. Average with it vs without it: pts 9.0 vs 12.0; rec 3.8 vs 5.0; yds 37.3 vs 49.7. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- Outlier: Week 2, Sam LaPorta (17.2 pts, 6 rec) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 9.0 vs 6.2; rec 3.8 vs 3.0. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 3 of 4 games reached 7+ PPR points. Scores range from 0.0 to 17.2 (median 9.3).
- TE1s scored a touchdown in 1 of 4 games (25%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.