Mo Alie-Cox
TE
Indianapolis Colts
This is how TEs have played against the Bengals in the 2026 season.
TE1 = the highest-scoring TE against Bengals in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  TB | Cade Otton | 5 | 3 | 26 | 0 | 5.6 |
| 2 |  HOU | Dalton Schultz | 14 | 12 | 140 | 0 | 26.0 |
| 3 |  PIT | Darnell Washington | 4 | 3 | 67 | 0 | 9.7 |
| 4 |  JAX | Brenton Strange | 8 | 7 | 95 | 0 | 16.5 |
| 5 |  MIA | Greg Dulcich | 5 | 4 | 37 | 0 | 9.7 |
| 7 |  BAL | Josh Cuevas | 3 | 2 | 35 | 0 | 5.5 |
| 8 |  TEN | Gunnar Helm | 9 | 5 | 76 | 0 | 14.6 |
| Average | 6.9 | 5.1 | 68.0 | 0.0 | 12.5 | ||
| Median | 5.0 | 4.0 | 67.0 | 0.0 | 9.7 | ||
| High | 14 | 12 | 140 | 0 | 26.0 | ||
| Low | 3 | 2 | 26 | 0 | 5.5 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Mo Alie-Cox should do vs the BengalsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Bengals, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Mo Alie-Cox has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Bengals opponents to line them up with: the best TE they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Mo Alie-Cox will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Bengals avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Mo Alie-Cox's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Mo Alie-Cox usually produces.
Projected is Mo Alie-Cox's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Bengals were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | HOU | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 | 2.6 |
| 5 | PIT | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 3.4 |
| 6 | TEN | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7.1 |
| 7 | MIN | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 |
| Alie-Cox avg | 1.5 | 1.0 | 7.8 | 0.3 | 3.3 | |
| Bengals TE1 avg | 6.9 | 5.1 | 68.0 | 0.0 | 12.5 | |
| Difference | +5.4 | +4.1 | +60.3 | -0.3 | +9.2 | |
| Projected as TE1 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 8.8 | 0.3 | 3.4 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Alie-Cox averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Start / Sit · Mo Alie-CoxGood confidence · 3.4 proj pts1/10 start
- Mo Alie-Cox averages 3.3 PPR points over 4 games (recent-weighted 3.1) and has played as the team's TE1.
- The Bengals have allowed 12.5 points to TE1s over 7 games (+19% vs league). The model applies 70% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a +13% adjustment.
- Last season's average (2.8) is blended in at 33% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Projection: 3.4 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level TE scores about 13.5 and a top-tier one about 19.5.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Prediction & chance to scoreMo Alie-Cox vs the Bengals
Prediction for Mo Alie-Cox
Nobody knows which slot Mo Alie-Cox will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Bengals.
I predict about 3.4 points for Mo Alie-Cox if playing as a TE1. Mo Alie-Cox has averaged 3.3 over 4 games, and the Bengals have given up 12.5 to TE1s (+19% vs the league average of 10.5).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Mo Alie-Cox scored: Wk 3 2.6, Wk 5 3.4, Wk 6 7.1, Wk 7 0.0. Average 3.3; weighted toward recent games it is 3.0.
2. The defense. Over 7 games, the Bengals allowed 12.5 points to their opponent's TE1. The league average for that slot is 10.5, so that is +19%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 7 defensive games, only 70% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +13% adjustment (x1.13).
4. Result. 3.0 x 1.13 = 3.4. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Mo Alie-Cox is to reach it as a TE1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (3.4) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 2.6 points, leaning on Mo Alie-Cox's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical TE swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 3.
With only 4 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- TE1s have averaged 5.1 receptions, 68.0 receiving yards and 0.0 receiving TDs against the Bengals across 7 games.
- The Bengals allow 12.5 PPR points to TE1s, +19% versus the league average of 10.5 (ranked 9 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a favorable matchup.
- Outlier: Week 2, Dalton Schultz (26.0 pts, 12 rec, 140 yds) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 12.5 vs 10.3; rec 5.1 vs 4.0; yds 68.0 vs 56.0. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- Outlier: Week 1, Cade Otton (26 yds) sits far below the other games and drags the averages down. Average with it vs without it: yds 68.0 vs 75.0. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 5 of 7 games reached 7+ PPR points. Scores range from 5.5 to 26.0 (median 9.7).
- TE1s scored a touchdown in 0 of 7 games (0%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.