Mo Alie-Cox
TE
Indianapolis Colts
This is how TEs have played against the Cowboys in the 2026 season.
TE1 = the highest-scoring TE against Cowboys in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  NYG | Isaiah Likely | 8 | 8 | 78 | 2 | 27.8 |
| 2 |  WAS | Colson Yankoff | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 | 2.4 |
| 3 |  BAL | Matthew Hibner | 2 | 2 | 23 | 1 | 10.3 |
| 4 |  HOU | Cade Stover | 1 | 1 | 20 | 0 | 3.0 |
| 5 |  TB | Cade Otton | 4 | 3 | 25 | 0 | 5.5 |
| 6 |  GB | Tucker Kraft | 8 | 5 | 37 | 0 | 8.7 |
| 7 |  PHI | Dallas Goedert | 7 | 5 | 48 | 0 | 9.8 |
| 8 |  ARI | Trey McBride | 8 | 7 | 72 | 1 | 20.2 |
| Average | 4.9 | 4.0 | 39.6 | 0.5 | 11.0 | ||
| Median | 5.5 | 4.0 | 31.0 | 0.0 | 9.3 | ||
| High | 8 | 8 | 78 | 2 | 27.8 | ||
| Low | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 | 2.4 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Mo Alie-Cox should do vs the CowboysSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Cowboys, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Mo Alie-Cox has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Cowboys opponents to line them up with: the best TE they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Mo Alie-Cox will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Cowboys avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Mo Alie-Cox's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Mo Alie-Cox usually produces.
Projected is Mo Alie-Cox's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Cowboys were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | HOU | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 | 2.6 |
| 5 | PIT | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 3.4 |
| 6 | TEN | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7.1 |
| 7 | MIN | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 |
| Alie-Cox avg | 1.5 | 1.0 | 7.8 | 0.3 | 3.3 | |
| Cowboys TE1 avg | 4.9 | 4.0 | 39.6 | 0.5 | 11.0 | |
| Difference | +3.4 | +3.0 | +31.9 | +0.3 | +7.7 | |
| Projected as TE1 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 8.0 | 0.3 | 3.1 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Alie-Cox averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Start / Sit · Mo Alie-CoxGood confidence · 3.4 proj pts1/10 start
- Mo Alie-Cox averages 3.3 PPR points over 4 games (recent-weighted 3.1) and has played as the team's TE1.
- The Cowboys have allowed 11.0 points to TE1s over 8 games (+4% vs league). The model applies 73% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a +3% adjustment.
- Last season's average (2.8) is blended in at 33% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Game environment +7%: Vegas total 51.5, implied 23.0 points for IND (league avg 22.6); Underdog by 5.5: likely to pass more while trailing; Indoors: no weather effect, a small boost for passing and kicking.
- Opposing-defense injuries (+4%): Opposing starter Jalen Thompson (CB) is on IR, which helps the passing game. Opposing starter Caleb Downs (S) is questionable, which helps the passing game.
- Projection: 3.4 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level TE scores about 13.5 and a top-tier one about 19.5.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Prediction & chance to scoreMo Alie-Cox vs the Cowboys
Prediction for Mo Alie-Cox
Nobody knows which slot Mo Alie-Cox will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Cowboys.
I predict about 3.1 points for Mo Alie-Cox if playing as a TE1. Mo Alie-Cox has averaged 3.3 over 4 games, and the Cowboys have given up 11.0 to TE1s (+4% vs the league average of 10.5).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Mo Alie-Cox scored: Wk 3 2.6, Wk 5 3.4, Wk 6 7.1, Wk 7 0.0. Average 3.3; weighted toward recent games it is 3.0.
2. The defense. Over 8 games, the Cowboys allowed 11.0 points to their opponent's TE1. The league average for that slot is 10.5, so that is +4%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 8 defensive games, only 73% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +3% adjustment (x1.03).
4. Result. 3.0 x 1.03 = 3.1. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Mo Alie-Cox is to reach it as a TE1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (3.1) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 2.6 points, leaning on Mo Alie-Cox's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical TE swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 3.
With only 4 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- TE1s have averaged 4.0 receptions, 39.6 receiving yards and 0.5 receiving TDs against the Cowboys across 8 games.
- The Cowboys allow 11.0 PPR points to TE1s, +4% versus the league average of 10.5 (ranked 13 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a near-average matchup.
- Outlier: Week 1, Isaiah Likely (27.8 pts, 8 rec, 78 yds) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 11.0 vs 8.6; rec 4.0 vs 3.4; yds 39.6 vs 34.1. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- Outlier: Week 8, Trey McBride (20.2 pts, 7 rec, 72 yds) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 11.0 vs 9.6; rec 4.0 vs 3.6; yds 39.6 vs 35.0. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 5 of 8 games reached 7+ PPR points. Scores range from 2.4 to 27.8 (median 9.3).
- TE1s scored a touchdown in 3 of 8 games (38%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.