Mo Alie-Cox
TE
Indianapolis Colts
This is how TEs have played against the Dolphins in the 2026 season.
TE1 = the highest-scoring TE against Dolphins in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  LV | Michael Mayer | 7 | 6 | 32 | 0 | 9.2 |
| 2 |  SF | George Kittle | 4 | 4 | 80 | 1 | 18.0 |
| 3 |  KC | Travis Kelce | 2 | 2 | 59 | 1 | 13.9 |
| 4 |  MIN | T.J. Hockenson | 13 | 13 | 119 | 0 | 24.9 |
| 5 |  CIN | Tanner Hudson | 3 | 3 | 14 | 1 | 10.4 |
| 7 |  NYJ | Mason Taylor | 6 | 5 | 62 | 2 | 25.2 |
| 8 |  NE | Hunter Henry | 3 | 3 | 30 | 0 | 6.0 |
| Average | 5.4 | 5.1 | 56.6 | 0.7 | 15.4 | ||
| Median | 4.0 | 4.0 | 59.0 | 1.0 | 13.9 | ||
| High | 13 | 13 | 119 | 2 | 25.2 | ||
| Low | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 6.0 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Mo Alie-Cox should do vs the DolphinsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Dolphins, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Mo Alie-Cox has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Dolphins opponents to line them up with: the best TE they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Mo Alie-Cox will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Dolphins avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Mo Alie-Cox's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Mo Alie-Cox usually produces.
Projected is Mo Alie-Cox's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Dolphins were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | HOU | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 | 2.6 |
| 5 | PIT | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 3.4 |
| 6 | TEN | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7.1 |
| 7 | MIN | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 |
| Alie-Cox avg | 1.5 | 1.0 | 7.8 | 0.3 | 3.3 | |
| Dolphins TE1 avg | 5.4 | 5.1 | 56.6 | 0.7 | 15.4 | |
| Difference | +3.9 | +4.1 | +48.8 | +0.5 | +12.1 | |
| Projected as TE1 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 10.1 | 0.3 | 3.9 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Alie-Cox averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Start / Sit · Mo Alie-CoxGood confidence · 3.9 proj pts1/10 start
- Mo Alie-Cox averages 3.3 PPR points over 4 games (recent-weighted 3.1) and has played as the team's TE1.
- The Dolphins have allowed 15.4 points to TE1s over 7 games (+46% vs league). The model applies 70% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a +30% adjustment.
- Last season's average (2.8) is blended in at 33% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Projection: 3.9 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level TE scores about 13.5 and a top-tier one about 19.5.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Prediction & chance to scoreMo Alie-Cox vs the Dolphins
Prediction for Mo Alie-Cox
Nobody knows which slot Mo Alie-Cox will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Dolphins.
I predict about 3.9 points for Mo Alie-Cox if playing as a TE1. Mo Alie-Cox has averaged 3.3 over 4 games, and the Dolphins have given up 15.4 to TE1s (+46% vs the league average of 10.5).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Mo Alie-Cox scored: Wk 3 2.6, Wk 5 3.4, Wk 6 7.1, Wk 7 0.0. Average 3.3; weighted toward recent games it is 3.0.
2. The defense. Over 7 games, the Dolphins allowed 15.4 points to their opponent's TE1. The league average for that slot is 10.5, so that is +46%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 7 defensive games, only 70% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +30% adjustment (x1.30).
4. Result. 3.0 x 1.30 = 3.9. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Mo Alie-Cox is to reach it as a TE1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (3.9) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 2.7 points, leaning on Mo Alie-Cox's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical TE swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 4.
With only 4 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- TE1s have averaged 5.1 receptions, 56.6 receiving yards and 0.7 receiving TDs against the Dolphins across 7 games.
- The Dolphins allow 15.4 PPR points to TE1s, +46% versus the league average of 10.5 (ranked 3 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a favorable matchup.
- Outlier: Week 4, T.J. Hockenson (24.9 pts, 13 rec, 119 yds) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 15.4 vs 13.8; rec 5.1 vs 3.8; yds 56.6 vs 46.2. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- Outlier: Week 7, Mason Taylor (25.2 pts) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 15.4 vs 13.7. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 6 of 7 games reached 7+ PPR points. Scores range from 6.0 to 25.2 (median 13.9).
- TE1s scored a touchdown in 4 of 7 games (57%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.