Mo Alie-Cox
TE
Indianapolis Colts
This is how TEs have played against the Vikings in the 2026 season.
TE1 = the highest-scoring TE against Vikings in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  GB | Tucker Kraft | 6 | 3 | 65 | 0 | 9.5 |
| 2 |  CHI | Sam Roush | 3 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 1.9 |
| 3 |  TB | Cade Otton | 6 | 3 | 56 | 0 | 8.6 |
| 4 |  MIA | Will Kacmarek | 2 | 1 | 15 | 0 | 2.5 |
| 5 |  NO | Juwan Johnson | 5 | 4 | 16 | 0 | 5.6 |
| Average | 4.4 | 2.4 | 32.2 | 0.0 | 5.6 | ||
| Median | 5.0 | 3.0 | 16.0 | 0.0 | 5.6 | ||
| High | 6 | 4 | 65 | 0 | 9.5 | ||
| Low | 2 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 1.9 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Mo Alie-Cox should do vs the VikingsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Vikings, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Mo Alie-Cox has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Vikings opponents to line them up with: the best TE they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Mo Alie-Cox will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Vikings avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Mo Alie-Cox's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Mo Alie-Cox usually produces.
Projected is Mo Alie-Cox's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Vikings were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | HOU | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 | 2.6 |
| 5 | PIT | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 3.4 |
| 6 | TEN | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7.1 |
| 7 | MIN | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 |
| Alie-Cox avg | 1.5 | 1.0 | 7.8 | 0.3 | 3.3 | |
| Vikings TE1 avg | 4.4 | 2.4 | 32.2 | 0.0 | 5.6 | |
| Difference | +2.9 | +1.4 | +24.5 | -0.3 | +2.3 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Alie-Cox averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Prediction & chance to scoreMo Alie-Cox vs the Vikings
Prediction for Mo Alie-Cox
Nobody knows which slot Mo Alie-Cox will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Vikings.
I predict about 2.8 points for Mo Alie-Cox if playing as a TE1. Mo Alie-Cox has averaged 4.4 over 3 games, and the Vikings have given up 5.6 to TE1s (-47% vs the league average of 10.5).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Mo Alie-Cox scored: Wk 3 2.6, Wk 5 3.4, Wk 6 7.1. Average 4.4; weighted toward recent games it is 3.9.
2. The defense. Over 5 games, the Vikings allowed 5.6 points to their opponent's TE1. The league average for that slot is 10.5, so that is -47%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 5 defensive games, only 63% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a -29% adjustment (x0.71).
4. Result. 3.9 x 0.71 = 2.8. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Mo Alie-Cox is to reach it as a TE1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (2.8) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 2.0 points, leaning on Mo Alie-Cox's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical TE swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 3.
With only 3 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- TE1s have averaged 2.4 receptions, 32.2 receiving yards and 0.0 receiving TDs against the Vikings across 5 games.
- The Vikings allow 5.6 PPR points to TE1s, -47% versus the league average of 10.5 (ranked 32 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a tough matchup.
- Outlier: Week 1, Tucker Kraft (65 yds) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: yds 32.2 vs 24.0. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 2 of 5 games reached 7+ PPR points. Scores range from 1.9 to 9.5 (median 5.6).
- TE1s scored a touchdown in 0 of 5 games (0%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.