Mo Alie-Cox
TE
Indianapolis Colts
This is how TEs have played against the Steelers in the 2026 season.
TE1 = the highest-scoring TE against Steelers in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  ATL | Kyle Pitts | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 |
| 2 |  NE | Hunter Henry | 5 | 3 | 40 | 0 | 7.0 |
| 3 |  CIN | Mike Gesicki | 3 | 3 | 37 | 1 | 12.7 |
| 4 |  CLE | Harold Fannin Jr. | 5 | 3 | 27 | 1 | 11.7 |
| Average | 3.5 | 2.3 | 26.0 | 0.5 | 7.8 | ||
| Median | 4.0 | 3.0 | 32.0 | 0.5 | 9.3 | ||
| High | 5 | 3 | 40 | 1 | 12.7 | ||
| Low | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Mo Alie-Cox should do vs the SteelersSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Steelers, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Mo Alie-Cox has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Steelers opponents to line them up with: the best TE they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Mo Alie-Cox will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Steelers avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Mo Alie-Cox's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Mo Alie-Cox usually produces.
Projected is Mo Alie-Cox's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Steelers were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | HOU | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 | 2.6 |
| 5 | PIT | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 3.4 |
| 6 | TEN | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7.1 |
| 7 | MIN | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 |
| Alie-Cox avg | 1.5 | 1.0 | 7.8 | 0.3 | 3.3 | |
| Steelers TE1 avg | 3.5 | 2.3 | 26.0 | 0.5 | 7.8 | |
| Difference | +2.0 | +1.3 | +18.3 | +0.3 | +4.6 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Alie-Cox averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Prediction & chance to scoreMo Alie-Cox vs the Steelers
Prediction for Mo Alie-Cox
Nobody knows which slot Mo Alie-Cox will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Steelers.
I predict about 2.4 points for Mo Alie-Cox if playing as a TE1. Mo Alie-Cox has averaged 2.6 over 1 game, and the Steelers have given up 7.8 to TE1s (-24% vs the league average of 10.3).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Mo Alie-Cox scored: Wk 3 2.6. Average 2.6; weighted toward recent games it is 2.7.
2. The defense. Over 4 games, the Steelers allowed 7.8 points to their opponent's TE1. The league average for that slot is 10.3, so that is -24%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 4 defensive games, only 57% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a -14% adjustment (x0.86).
4. Result. 2.7 x 0.86 = 2.4. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Mo Alie-Cox is to reach it as a TE1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (2.4) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 1.4 points, leaning on Mo Alie-Cox's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical TE swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 2.
With only 1 game of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- TE1s have averaged 2.3 receptions, 26.0 receiving yards and 0.5 receiving TDs against the Steelers across 4 games.
- The Steelers allow 7.8 PPR points to TE1s, -24% versus the league average of 10.3 (ranked 24 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a tough matchup.
- Outlier: Week 1, Kyle Pitts (0.0 pts, 0 rec, 0 yds) sits far below the other games and drags the averages down. Average with it vs without it: pts 7.8 vs 10.5; rec 2.3 vs 3.0; yds 26.0 vs 34.7. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- Outlier: Week 3, Mike Gesicki (12.7 pts) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 7.8 vs 6.2. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 3 of 4 games reached 7+ PPR points. Scores range from 0.0 to 12.7 (median 9.3).
- TE1s scored a touchdown in 2 of 4 games (50%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.