Mo Alie-Cox
TE
Indianapolis Colts
This is how TEs have played against the Commanders in the 2026 season.
TE1 = the highest-scoring TE against Commanders in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  PHI | Dallas Goedert | 5 | 4 | 77 | 2 | 23.7 |
| 2 |  DAL | Jake Ferguson | 4 | 4 | 43 | 2 | 20.3 |
| 3 |  SEA | AJ Barner | 9 | 5 | 69 | 0 | 11.9 |
| Average | 6.0 | 4.3 | 63.0 | 1.3 | 18.6 | ||
| Median | 5.0 | 4.0 | 69.0 | 2.0 | 20.3 | ||
| High | 9 | 5 | 77 | 2 | 23.7 | ||
| Low | 4 | 4 | 43 | 0 | 11.9 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Mo Alie-Cox should do vs the CommandersSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Commanders, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Mo Alie-Cox has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Commanders opponents to line them up with: the best TE they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Mo Alie-Cox will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Commanders avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Mo Alie-Cox's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Mo Alie-Cox usually produces.
Projected is Mo Alie-Cox's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Commanders were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | HOU | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 | 2.6 |
| 5 | PIT | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 3.4 |
| 6 | TEN | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7.1 |
| 7 | MIN | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 |
| Alie-Cox avg | 1.5 | 1.0 | 7.8 | 0.3 | 3.3 | |
| Commanders TE1 avg | 6.0 | 4.3 | 63.0 | 1.3 | 18.6 | |
| Difference | +4.5 | +3.3 | +55.3 | +1.1 | +15.4 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Alie-Cox averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Prediction & chance to scoreMo Alie-Cox vs the Commanders
Prediction for Mo Alie-Cox
Nobody knows which slot Mo Alie-Cox will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Commanders.
I predict about 3.5 points for Mo Alie-Cox if playing as a TE1. Mo Alie-Cox has averaged 2.6 over 1 game, and the Commanders have given up 18.6 to TE1s (+77% vs the league average of 10.5).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Mo Alie-Cox scored: Wk 3 2.6. Average 2.6; weighted toward recent games it is 2.7.
2. The defense. Over 3 games, the Commanders allowed 18.6 points to their opponent's TE1. The league average for that slot is 10.5, so that is +77%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 3 defensive games, only 50% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +30% adjustment (x1.30).
4. Result. 2.7 x 1.30 = 3.5. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Mo Alie-Cox is to reach it as a TE1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (3.5) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 2.1 points, leaning on Mo Alie-Cox's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical TE swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 4.
With only 1 game of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- TE1s have averaged 4.3 receptions, 63.0 receiving yards and 1.3 receiving TDs against the Commanders across 3 games.
- The Commanders allow 18.6 PPR points to TE1s, +77% versus the league average of 10.5 (ranked 2 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a favorable matchup.
- 3 of 3 games reached 7+ PPR points. Scores range from 11.9 to 23.7 (median 20.3).
- Every TE1 in the sample cleared 40 receiving yards.
- TE1s scored a touchdown in 2 of 3 games (67%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.