George Kittle
TE
San Francisco 49ers
- Teammate Christian McCaffrey (a top target) is questionable.
- Teammate Mike Evans (a top target) is questionable.
- Teammate Deebo Samuel Sr. (a top target) is questionable.
A hurt top target or lead back nudges the projection up a little, since their work tends to shift to teammates. QB and offensive-line flags are shown for context but do not change the number.
This is how TEs have played against the Commanders in the 2026 season.
TE1 = the highest-scoring TE against Commanders in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  PHI | Dallas Goedert | 5 | 4 | 77 | 2 | 23.7 |
| 2 |  DAL | Jake Ferguson | 4 | 4 | 43 | 2 | 20.3 |
| 3 |  SEA | AJ Barner | 9 | 5 | 69 | 0 | 11.9 |
| 4 |  IND | Tyler Warren | 5 | 5 | 41 | 0 | 9.1 |
| 5 |  NYG | Isaiah Likely | 13 | 11 | 94 | 2 | 32.4 |
| Average | 7.2 | 5.8 | 64.8 | 1.2 | 19.5 | ||
| Median | 5.0 | 5.0 | 69.0 | 2.0 | 20.3 | ||
| High | 13 | 11 | 94 | 2 | 32.4 | ||
| Low | 4 | 4 | 41 | 0 | 9.1 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How George Kittle should do vs the CommandersSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Commanders, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game George Kittle has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Commanders opponents to line them up with: the best TE they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot George Kittle will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Commanders avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus George Kittle's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than George Kittle usually produces.
Projected is George Kittle's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Commanders were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LA | 5 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 3.2 |
| 2 | MIA | 4 | 4 | 80 | 1 | 18.0 |
| 3 | ARI | 7 | 6 | 82 | 2 | 26.2 |
| 4 | DEN | 6 | 4 | 70 | 1 | 17.0 |
| 5 | SEA | 6 | 5 | 24 | 0 | 7.4 |
| 6 | WAS | 8 | 5 | 69 | 1 | 17.9 |
| 7 | ATL | 10 | 8 | 88 | 0 | 14.8 |
| Kittle avg | 6.6 | 4.9 | 60.7 | 0.7 | 14.9 | |
| Commanders TE1 avg | 7.2 | 5.8 | 64.8 | 1.2 | 19.5 | |
| Difference | +0.6 | +0.9 | +4.1 | +0.5 | +4.6 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Kittle averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Prediction & chance to scoreGeorge Kittle vs the Commanders
Prediction for George Kittle
Nobody knows which slot George Kittle will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Commanders.
I predict about 18.8 points for George Kittle if playing as a TE1. George Kittle has averaged 14.4 over 5 games, and the Commanders have given up 19.5 to TE1s (+87% vs the league average of 10.4).
How this projection is built
1. The player. George Kittle scored: Wk 1 3.2, Wk 2 18.0, Wk 3 26.2, Wk 4 17.0, Wk 5 7.4. Average 14.4; weighted toward recent games it is 14.5.
2. The defense. Over 5 games, the Commanders allowed 19.5 points to their opponent's TE1. The league average for that slot is 10.4, so that is +87%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 5 defensive games, only 63% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +30% adjustment (x1.30).
4. Result. 14.5 x 1.30 = 18.8. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely George Kittle is to reach it as a TE1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (18.8) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 9.5 points, leaning on George Kittle's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical TE swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 19.
With only 5 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- TE1s have averaged 5.8 receptions, 64.8 receiving yards and 1.2 receiving TDs against the Commanders across 5 games.
- The Commanders allow 19.5 PPR points to TE1s, +87% versus the league average of 10.4 (ranked 1 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a favorable matchup.
- Outlier: Week 5, Isaiah Likely (32.4 pts, 11 rec, 94 yds) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 19.5 vs 16.3; rec 5.8 vs 4.5; yds 64.8 vs 57.5. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 5 of 5 games reached 7+ PPR points. Scores range from 9.1 to 32.4 (median 20.3).
- Every TE1 in the sample cleared 40 receiving yards.
- TE1s scored a touchdown in 3 of 5 games (60%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.