Aaron Jones
RB
Minnesota Vikings
- Quarterback Kyler Murray is questionable. Watch the status.
A hurt top target or lead back nudges the projection up a little, since their work tends to shift to teammates. QB and offensive-line flags are shown for context but do not change the number.
This is how RBs have played against the Colts in the 2026 season.
RB1 = the highest-scoring RB against Colts in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  BAL | Derrick Henry | 24 | 144 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 | 35.3 |
| 2 |  KC | Kenneth Walker III | 24 | 117 | 0 | 10 | 6 | 61 | 0 | 23.8 |
| 3 |  HOU | Woody Marks | 5 | 15 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 9.1 |
| 4 |  WAS | Jacory Croskey-Merritt | 9 | 15 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 35 | 0 | 7.0 |
| 5 |  PIT | Jaylen Warren | 15 | 101 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 87 | 1 | 36.8 |
| 6 |  TEN | Tony Pollard | 19 | 76 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7.6 |
| Average | 16.0 | 78.0 | 0.8 | 3.8 | 2.7 | 34.7 | 0.2 | 19.9 | ||
| Median | 17.0 | 88.5 | 0.5 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 27.0 | 0.0 | 16.4 | ||
| High | 24 | 144 | 3 | 10 | 6 | 87 | 1 | 36.8 | ||
| Low | 5 | 15 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7.0 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Aaron Jones should do vs the ColtsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Colts, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Aaron Jones has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Colts opponents to line them up with: the best RB they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Aaron Jones will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Colts avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Aaron Jones's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Aaron Jones usually produces.
Projected is Aaron Jones's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Colts were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GB | 12 | 40 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10.0 |
| 2 | CHI | 23 | 105 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10.5 |
| 3 | TB | 17 | 58 | 0 | 6 | 5 | 34 | 0 | 14.2 |
| 4 | MIA | 20 | 94 | 0 | 8 | 4 | 34 | 0 | 16.8 |
| 5 | NO | 25 | 113 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 18.7 |
| 7 | IND | 8 | 26 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3.6 |
| 8 | DET | 5 | 22 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 | 6.0 |
| Jones avg | 15.7 | 65.4 | 0.3 | 3.0 | 2.1 | 12.9 | 0.0 | 11.4 | |
| Colts RB1 avg | 16.0 | 78.0 | 0.8 | 3.8 | 2.7 | 34.7 | 0.2 | 19.9 | |
| Difference | +0.3 | +12.6 | +0.5 | +0.8 | +0.5 | +21.8 | +0.2 | +8.5 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Jones averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Prediction & chance to scoreAaron Jones vs the Colts
Prediction for Aaron Jones
Nobody knows which slot Aaron Jones will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Colts.
I predict about 16.0 points for Aaron Jones if playing as a RB1. Aaron Jones has averaged 14.0 over 5 games, and the Colts have given up 19.9 to RB1s (+26% vs the league average of 15.8).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Aaron Jones scored: Wk 1 10.0, Wk 2 10.5, Wk 3 14.2, Wk 4 16.8, Wk 5 18.7. Average 14.0; weighted toward recent games it is 13.6.
2. The defense. Over 6 games, the Colts allowed 19.9 points to their opponent's RB1. The league average for that slot is 15.8, so that is +26%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 6 defensive games, only 67% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +17% adjustment (x1.17).
4. Result. 13.6 x 1.17 = 16.0. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Aaron Jones is to reach it as a RB1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (16.0) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 6.4 points, leaning on Aaron Jones's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical RB swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 16.
With only 5 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- RB1s have averaged 16.0 carries, 78.0 rushing yards and 2.7 receptions against the Colts across 6 games.
- The Colts allow 19.9 PPR points to RB1s, +26% versus the league average of 15.8 (ranked 4 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a favorable matchup.
- Outlier: Week 1, Derrick Henry (35.3 pts, 24 car, 144 rush yds) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 19.9 vs 16.9; car 16.0 vs 14.4; rush yds 78.0 vs 64.8. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- Outlier: Week 2, Kenneth Walker III (24 car, 117 rush yds) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: car 16.0 vs 14.4; rush yds 78.0 vs 70.2. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 3 of 6 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 7.0 to 36.8 (median 16.4).
- RB1s scored a touchdown in 3 of 6 games (50%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.