Aaron Jones
RB
Minnesota Vikings
- Quarterback Kyler Murray is questionable. Watch the status.
A hurt top target or lead back nudges the projection up a little, since their work tends to shift to teammates. QB and offensive-line flags are shown for context but do not change the number.
This is how RBs have played against the Bills in the 2026 season.
RB1 = the highest-scoring RB against Bills in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  HOU | David Montgomery | 20 | 60 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 19 | 1 | 28.9 |
| 2 |  DET | Jahmyr Gibbs | 16 | 52 | 0 | 8 | 6 | 61 | 1 | 23.3 |
| 3 |  LAC | Keaton Mitchell | 8 | 52 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -5 | 1 | 13.7 |
| 4 |  NE | Rhamondre Stevenson | 13 | 47 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 27 | 0 | 18.4 |
| 5 |  LA | Kyren Williams | 16 | 49 | 1 | 8 | 6 | 27 | 0 | 19.6 |
| 6 |  LV | Ashton Jeanty | 10 | 22 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 36 | 0 | 15.8 |
| 8 |  BAL | Derrick Henry | 11 | 53 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 14.0 |
| Average | 13.4 | 47.9 | 0.9 | 5.0 | 3.9 | 24.6 | 0.4 | 19.1 | ||
| Median | 13.0 | 52.0 | 1.0 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 27.0 | 0.0 | 18.4 | ||
| High | 20 | 60 | 2 | 8 | 6 | 61 | 1 | 28.9 | ||
| Low | 8 | 22 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -5 | 0 | 13.7 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Aaron Jones should do vs the BillsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Bills, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Aaron Jones has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Bills opponents to line them up with: the best RB they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Aaron Jones will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Bills avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Aaron Jones's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Aaron Jones usually produces.
Projected is Aaron Jones's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Bills were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GB | 12 | 40 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10.0 |
| 2 | CHI | 23 | 105 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10.5 |
| 3 | TB | 17 | 58 | 0 | 6 | 5 | 34 | 0 | 14.2 |
| 4 | MIA | 20 | 94 | 0 | 8 | 4 | 34 | 0 | 16.8 |
| 5 | NO | 25 | 113 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 18.7 |
| 7 | IND | 8 | 26 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3.6 |
| 8 | DET | 5 | 22 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 | 6.0 |
| Jones avg | 15.7 | 65.4 | 0.3 | 3.0 | 2.1 | 12.9 | 0.0 | 11.4 | |
| Bills RB1 avg | 13.4 | 47.9 | 0.9 | 5.0 | 3.9 | 24.6 | 0.4 | 19.1 | |
| Difference | -2.3 | -17.6 | +0.6 | +2.0 | +1.7 | +11.7 | +0.4 | +7.7 | |
| Projected as RB1 | 17.8 | 74.0 | 0.3 | 3.4 | 2.4 | 14.5 | 0.0 | 11.7 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Jones averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Start / Sit · Aaron JonesGood confidence · 11.3 proj pts5/10 start
- Aaron Jones averages 11.4 PPR points over 7 games (recent-weighted 10.5) and has played as the team's RB1.
- The Bills have allowed 19.1 points to RB1s over 7 games (+19% vs league). The model applies 70% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a +13% adjustment.
- Last season's average (9.9) is blended in at 22% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Game environment -2%: Vegas total 44.5, implied 20.8 points for MIN (league avg 22.6); Underdog by 3: likely to pass more while trailing; Indoors: no weather effect, a small boost for passing and kicking.
- QB change: Kyler Murray is now throwing (6.8 yds/att vs 6.8 earlier), x0.99.
- Flag: Quarterback Kyler Murray is questionable. Watch the status.
- Projection: 11.3 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level RB scores about 13.1 and a top-tier one about 20.9.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Prediction & chance to scoreAaron Jones vs the Bills
Prediction for Aaron Jones
Nobody knows which slot Aaron Jones will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Bills.
I predict about 11.7 points for Aaron Jones if playing as a RB1. Aaron Jones has averaged 11.4 over 7 games, and the Bills have given up 19.1 to RB1s (+19% vs the league average of 16.1).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Aaron Jones scored: Wk 1 10.0, Wk 2 10.5, Wk 3 14.2, Wk 4 16.8, Wk 5 18.7, Wk 7 3.6, Wk 8 6.0. Average 11.4; weighted toward recent games it is 10.3.
2. The defense. Over 7 games, the Bills allowed 19.1 points to their opponent's RB1. The league average for that slot is 16.1, so that is +19%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 7 defensive games, only 70% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +13% adjustment (x1.13).
4. Result. 10.3 x 1.13 = 11.7. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Aaron Jones is to reach it as a RB1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (11.7) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 5.5 points, leaning on Aaron Jones's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical RB swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 12.
With only 7 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- RB1s have averaged 13.4 carries, 47.9 rushing yards and 3.9 receptions against the Bills across 7 games.
- The Bills allow 19.1 PPR points to RB1s, +19% versus the league average of 16.1 (ranked 5 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a favorable matchup.
- Outlier: Week 1, David Montgomery (28.9 pts, 20 car) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 19.1 vs 17.5; car 13.4 vs 12.3. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 7 of 7 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 13.7 to 28.9 (median 18.4).
- RB1s scored a touchdown in 7 of 7 games (100%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.