Aaron Jones
RB
Minnesota Vikings
- Quarterback Kyler Murray is questionable. Watch the status.
A hurt top target or lead back nudges the projection up a little, since their work tends to shift to teammates. QB and offensive-line flags are shown for context but do not change the number.
This is how RBs have played against the Saints in the 2026 season.
RB1 = the highest-scoring RB against Saints in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  DET | Jahmyr Gibbs | 29 | 156 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 30 | 0 | 33.6 |
| 2 |  BAL | Derrick Henry | 16 | 68 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 19 | 0 | 17.7 |
| 3 |  LV | Ashton Jeanty | 19 | 56 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 37 | 0 | 12.3 |
| 4 |  ATL | Bijan Robinson | 19 | 145 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 27.7 |
| Average | 20.8 | 106.3 | 1.3 | 3.3 | 3.0 | 22.0 | 0.0 | 22.8 | ||
| Median | 19.0 | 106.5 | 1.5 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 24.5 | 0.0 | 22.7 | ||
| High | 29 | 156 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 37 | 0 | 33.6 | ||
| Low | 16 | 56 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 12.3 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Aaron Jones should do vs the SaintsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Saints, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Aaron Jones has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Saints opponents to line them up with: the best RB they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Aaron Jones will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Saints avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Aaron Jones's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Aaron Jones usually produces.
Projected is Aaron Jones's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Saints were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GB | 12 | 40 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10.0 |
| 2 | CHI | 23 | 105 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10.5 |
| 3 | TB | 17 | 58 | 0 | 6 | 5 | 34 | 0 | 14.2 |
| 4 | MIA | 20 | 94 | 0 | 8 | 4 | 34 | 0 | 16.8 |
| 5 | NO | 25 | 113 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 18.7 |
| 7 | IND | 8 | 26 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3.6 |
| 8 | DET | 5 | 22 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 | 6.0 |
| Jones avg | 15.7 | 65.4 | 0.3 | 3.0 | 2.1 | 12.9 | 0.0 | 11.4 | |
| Saints RB1 avg | 20.8 | 106.3 | 1.3 | 3.3 | 3.0 | 22.0 | 0.0 | 22.8 | |
| Difference | +5.0 | +40.8 | +1.0 | +0.3 | +0.9 | +9.1 | +0.0 | +11.4 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Jones averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Prediction & chance to scoreAaron Jones vs the Saints
Prediction for Aaron Jones
Nobody knows which slot Aaron Jones will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Saints.
I predict about 15.3 points for Aaron Jones if playing as a RB1. Aaron Jones has averaged 12.9 over 4 games, and the Saints have given up 22.8 to RB1s (+42% vs the league average of 16.0).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Aaron Jones scored: Wk 1 10.0, Wk 2 10.5, Wk 3 14.2, Wk 4 16.8. Average 12.9; weighted toward recent games it is 12.3.
2. The defense. Over 4 games, the Saints allowed 22.8 points to their opponent's RB1. The league average for that slot is 16.0, so that is +42%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 4 defensive games, only 57% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +24% adjustment (x1.24).
4. Result. 12.3 x 1.24 = 15.3. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Aaron Jones is to reach it as a RB1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (15.3) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 6.1 points, leaning on Aaron Jones's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical RB swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 15.
With only 4 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- RB1s have averaged 20.8 carries, 106.3 rushing yards and 3.0 receptions against the Saints across 4 games.
- The Saints allow 22.8 PPR points to RB1s, +42% versus the league average of 16.0 (ranked 2 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a favorable matchup.
- Outlier: Week 1, Jahmyr Gibbs (33.6 pts, 29 car, 156 rush yds) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 22.8 vs 19.2; car 20.8 vs 18.0; rush yds 106.3 vs 89.7. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 4 of 4 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 12.3 to 33.6 (median 22.7).
- Every RB1 in the sample cleared 50 rushing yards.
- RB1s scored a touchdown in 3 of 4 games (75%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.