Evan Engram
TE
Denver Broncos
- Teammate RJ Harvey (a top target) is on IR, so Engram may see more targets.
A hurt top target or lead back nudges the projection up a little, since their work tends to shift to teammates. QB and offensive-line flags are shown for context but do not change the number.
This is how TEs have played against the Bills in the 2026 season.
TE1 = the highest-scoring TE against Bills in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  HOU | Dalton Schultz | 8 | 4 | 35 | 0 | 7.5 |
| 2 |  DET | Sam LaPorta | 7 | 6 | 52 | 1 | 17.2 |
| 3 |  LAC | Oronde Gadsden II | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 |
| 4 |  NE | Hunter Henry | 5 | 5 | 62 | 0 | 11.2 |
| 5 |  LA | Tyler Higbee | 6 | 5 | 83 | 0 | 13.3 |
| 6 |  LV | Michael Mayer | 9 | 7 | 95 | 0 | 16.5 |
| 8 |  BAL | Mark Andrews | 4 | 3 | 14 | 0 | 4.4 |
| Average | 6.0 | 4.3 | 48.7 | 0.1 | 10.0 | ||
| Median | 6.0 | 5.0 | 52.0 | 0.0 | 11.2 | ||
| High | 9 | 7 | 95 | 1 | 17.2 | ||
| Low | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Evan Engram should do vs the BillsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Bills, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Evan Engram has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Bills opponents to line them up with: the best TE they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Evan Engram will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Bills avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Evan Engram's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Evan Engram usually produces.
Projected is Evan Engram's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Bills were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | KC | 5 | 4 | 43 | 1 | 14.3 |
| 2 | JAX | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 | 2.7 |
| 3 | LA | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | SF | 5 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 1.6 |
| 5 | LAC | 4 | 4 | 55 | 0 | 9.5 |
| 6 | SEA | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 3.3 |
| 7 | ARI | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1.2 |
| 8 | KC | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 |
| Engram avg | 3.1 | 1.6 | 17.0 | 0.1 | 4.1 | |
| Bills TE1 avg | 6.0 | 4.3 | 48.7 | 0.1 | 10.0 | |
| Difference | +2.9 | +2.7 | +31.7 | +0.0 | +5.9 | |
| Projected as TE1 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 16.4 | 0.1 | 3.5 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Engram averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Start / Sit · Evan EngramGood confidence · 3.5 proj pts1/10 start
- Evan Engram averages 4.1 PPR points over 8 games (recent-weighted 3.0) and has played as the team's TE1.
- The Bills have allowed 10.0 points to TE1s over 7 games (-5% vs league). The model applies 70% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a -3% adjustment.
- Last season's average (6.4) is blended in at 20% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Projection: 3.5 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level TE scores about 13.5 and a top-tier one about 19.5.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Prediction & chance to scoreEvan Engram vs the Bills
Prediction for Evan Engram
Nobody knows which slot Evan Engram will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Bills.
I predict about 3.5 points for Evan Engram if playing as a TE1. Evan Engram has averaged 4.1 over 8 games, and the Bills have given up 10.0 to TE1s (-5% vs the league average of 10.5).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Evan Engram scored: Wk 1 14.3, Wk 2 2.7, Wk 3 0.0, Wk 4 1.6, Wk 5 9.5, Wk 6 3.3, Wk 7 1.2, Wk 8 0.0. Average 4.1; weighted toward recent games it is 3.6.
2. The defense. Over 7 games, the Bills allowed 10.0 points to their opponent's TE1. The league average for that slot is 10.5, so that is -5%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 7 defensive games, only 70% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a -3% adjustment (x0.97).
4. Result. 3.6 x 0.97 = 3.5. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Evan Engram is to reach it as a TE1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (3.5) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 5.1 points, leaning on Evan Engram's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical TE swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 4.
With only 8 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- TE1s have averaged 4.3 receptions, 48.7 receiving yards and 0.1 receiving TDs against the Bills across 7 games.
- The Bills allow 10.0 PPR points to TE1s, -5% versus the league average of 10.5 (ranked 17 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a near-average matchup.
- Outlier: Week 6, Michael Mayer (16.5 pts, 7 rec, 95 yds) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 10.0 vs 8.9; rec 4.3 vs 3.8; yds 48.7 vs 41.0. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- Outlier: Week 3, Oronde Gadsden II (0.0 pts, 0 rec, 0 yds) sits far below the other games and drags the averages down. Average with it vs without it: pts 10.0 vs 11.7; rec 4.3 vs 5.0; yds 48.7 vs 56.8. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 5 of 7 games reached 7+ PPR points. Scores range from 0.0 to 17.2 (median 11.2).
- TE1s scored a touchdown in 1 of 7 games (14%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.