Dallas Goedert
TE
Philadelphia Eagles
- Quarterback Tanner McKee is questionable. Watch the status.
- Teammate DeVonta Smith (a top target) is questionable.
- Teammate Dontayvion Wicks (a top target) is questionable.
A hurt top target or lead back nudges the projection up a little, since their work tends to shift to teammates. QB and offensive-line flags are shown for context but do not change the number.
This is how TEs have played against the Jaguars in the 2026 season.
TE1 = the highest-scoring TE against Jaguars in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  CLE | Harold Fannin Jr. | 3 | 2 | 21 | 0 | 4.1 |
| 2 |  DEN | Nate Adkins | 3 | 3 | 32 | 1 | 12.8 |
| 3 |  NE | Hunter Henry | 2 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 1.5 |
| 4 |  CIN | Mike Gesicki | 5 | 3 | 40 | 1 | 13.0 |
| Average | 3.3 | 2.3 | 24.5 | 0.5 | 7.8 | ||
| Median | 3.0 | 2.5 | 26.5 | 0.5 | 8.4 | ||
| High | 5 | 3 | 40 | 1 | 13.0 | ||
| Low | 2 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 1.5 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Dallas Goedert should do vs the JaguarsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Jaguars, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Dallas Goedert has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Jaguars opponents to line them up with: the best TE they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Dallas Goedert will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Jaguars avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Dallas Goedert's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Dallas Goedert usually produces.
Projected is Dallas Goedert's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Jaguars were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | WAS | 5 | 4 | 77 | 2 | 23.7 |
| 2 | TEN | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1.4 |
| 5 | JAX | 9 | 6 | 38 | 0 | 9.8 |
| 6 | CAR | 8 | 6 | 61 | 0 | 12.1 |
| 7 | DAL | 7 | 5 | 48 | 0 | 9.8 |
| 8 | WAS | 4 | 4 | 30 | 0 | 7.2 |
| Goedert avg | 5.8 | 4.3 | 43.0 | 0.3 | 10.7 | |
| Jaguars TE1 avg | 3.3 | 2.3 | 24.5 | 0.5 | 7.8 | |
| Difference | -2.6 | -2.1 | -18.5 | +0.2 | -2.8 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Goedert averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Prediction & chance to scoreDallas Goedert vs the Jaguars
Prediction for Dallas Goedert
Nobody knows which slot Dallas Goedert will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Jaguars.
I predict about 10.2 points for Dallas Goedert if playing as a TE1. Dallas Goedert has averaged 12.5 over 2 games, and the Jaguars have given up 7.8 to TE1s (-24% vs the league average of 10.3).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Dallas Goedert scored: Wk 1 23.7, Wk 2 1.4. Average 12.5; weighted toward recent games it is 11.8.
2. The defense. Over 4 games, the Jaguars allowed 7.8 points to their opponent's TE1. The league average for that slot is 10.3, so that is -24%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 4 defensive games, only 57% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a -14% adjustment (x0.86).
4. Result. 11.8 x 0.86 = 10.2. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Dallas Goedert is to reach it as a TE1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (10.2) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 6.1 points, leaning on Dallas Goedert's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical TE swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 10.
With only 2 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- TE1s have averaged 2.3 receptions, 24.5 receiving yards and 0.5 receiving TDs against the Jaguars across 4 games.
- The Jaguars allow 7.8 PPR points to TE1s, -24% versus the league average of 10.3 (ranked 23 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a tough matchup.
- Outlier: Week 4, Mike Gesicki (13.0 pts) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 7.8 vs 6.1. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- Outlier: Week 2, Nate Adkins (12.8 pts) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 7.8 vs 6.2. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 2 of 4 games reached 7+ PPR points. Scores range from 1.5 to 13.0 (median 8.4).
- TE1s scored a touchdown in 2 of 4 games (50%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.