Justin Watson
WR
Kansas City Chiefs
This is how WRs have played against the Bills in the 2026 season.
WR3 = the third-highest-scoring WR against Bills in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  HOU | Xavier Hutchinson | 6 | 3 | 32 | 0 | 6.2 |
| 2 |  DET | Isaac TeSlaa | 5 | 2 | 26 | 0 | 4.6 |
| 3 |  LAC | Quentin Johnston | 6 | 3 | 40 | 0 | 7.0 |
| 4 |  NE | Mack Hollins | 4 | 3 | 53 | 0 | 8.3 |
| 5 |  LA | Tutu Atwell | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1.4 |
| 6 |  LV | Cody White | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 |
| 8 |  BAL | Zay Flowers | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 |
| Average | 4.1 | 1.7 | 22.1 | 0.0 | 3.9 | ||
| Median | 5.0 | 2.0 | 26.0 | 0.0 | 4.6 | ||
| High | 6 | 3 | 53 | 0 | 8.3 | ||
| Low | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Justin Watson should do vs the BillsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Bills, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Justin Watson has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Bills opponents to line them up with: the best WR they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Justin Watson will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Bills avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Justin Watson's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Justin Watson usually produces.
Projected is Justin Watson's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Bills were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | SEA | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 1.7 |
| Watson avg | 1.0 | 1.0 | 7.0 | 0.0 | 1.7 | |
| Bills WR3 avg | 4.1 | 1.7 | 22.1 | 0.0 | 3.9 | |
| Difference | +3.1 | +0.7 | +15.1 | +0.0 | +2.2 | |
| Projected as WR3 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 6.5 | 0.0 | 1.6 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Watson averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Start / Sit · Justin WatsonLow confidence · 1.6 proj pts1/10 start
- Justin Watson averages 1.7 PPR points over 1 game (recent-weighted 1.7) and has played as the team's WR3.
- The Bills have allowed 3.9 points to WR3s over 7 games (-10% vs league). The model applies 70% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a -7% adjustment.
- Projection: 1.6 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level WR scores about 12.2 and a top-tier one about 20.9.
- Confidence is low: too few games for either the player or the defense. Use this as a rough lean, not a lock.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Prediction & chance to scoreJustin Watson vs the Bills
Prediction for Justin Watson
Nobody knows which slot Justin Watson will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Bills.
I predict about 1.6 points for Justin Watson if playing as a WR3. Justin Watson has averaged 1.7 over 1 game, and the Bills have given up 3.9 to WR3s (-10% vs the league average of 4.4).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Justin Watson scored: Wk 7 1.7. Average 1.7; weighted toward recent games it is 1.7.
2. The defense. Over 7 games, the Bills allowed 3.9 points to their opponent's WR3. The league average for that slot is 4.4, so that is -10%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 7 defensive games, only 70% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a -7% adjustment (x0.93).
4. Result. 1.7 x 0.93 = 1.6. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Justin Watson is to reach it as a WR3.
Why this percentage?
The projection (1.6) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 0.9 points, leaning on Justin Watson's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical WR swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 2.
With only 1 game of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- WR3s have averaged 1.7 receptions, 22.1 receiving yards and 0.0 receiving TDs against the Bills across 7 games.
- The Bills allow 3.9 PPR points to WR3s, -10% versus the league average of 4.4 (ranked 20 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a tough matchup.
- Outlier: Week 4, Mack Hollins (53 yds) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: yds 22.1 vs 17.0. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 0 of 7 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 0.0 to 8.3 (median 4.6).
- WR3s scored a touchdown in 0 of 7 games (0%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.