Baker Mayfield
QB
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
This is how QBs have played against the Vikings in the 2026 season.
| Wk | Team | Player | Cmp | Att | PaYd | PaTD | INT | Car | RuYd | RuTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  GB | Jordan Love | 21 | 42 | 387 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19.5 |
| 2 |  CHI | Caleb Williams | 15 | 26 | 138 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 42 | 0 | 7.7 |
| Average | 18.0 | 34.0 | 262.5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 21.0 | 0.0 | 13.6 | ||
| Median | 18.0 | 34.0 | 262.5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 21.0 | 0.0 | 13.6 | ||
| High | 21 | 42 | 387 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 42 | 0 | 19.5 | ||
| Low | 15 | 26 | 138 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7.7 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Baker Mayfield should do vs the VikingsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Vikings, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Baker Mayfield has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Vikings opponents to line them up with: the best QB they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Baker Mayfield will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Vikings avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Baker Mayfield's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Baker Mayfield usually produces.
Projected is Baker Mayfield's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Vikings were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Cmp | Att | PaYd | PaTD | INT | Car | RuYd | RuTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CIN | 23 | 28 | 216 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 30 | 1 | 11.6 |
| 2 | CLE | 21 | 34 | 182 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 29 | 0 | 12.2 |
| 3 | MIN | 17 | 34 | 217 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 11.3 |
| 7 | CAR | 7 | 11 | 64 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6.7 |
| 8 | ATL | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 0 | 1.4 |
| Mayfield avg | 13.6 | 22.0 | 135.8 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 3.2 | 16.0 | 0.2 | 8.6 | |
| Vikings QB1 avg | 18.0 | 34.0 | 262.5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 21.0 | 0.0 | 13.6 | |
| Difference | +4.4 | +12.0 | +126.7 | +0.4 | +0.6 | -0.2 | +5.0 | -0.2 | +5.0 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Mayfield averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Prediction & chance to scoreBaker Mayfield vs the Vikings
Prediction for Baker Mayfield
Nobody knows which slot Baker Mayfield will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Vikings.
I predict about 12.9 points for Baker Mayfield if playing as a QB1. Baker Mayfield has averaged 11.9 over 2 games, and the Vikings have given up 13.6 to QB1s (-19% vs the league average of 16.8).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Baker Mayfield scored: Wk 1 11.6, Wk 2 12.2. Average 11.9; weighted toward recent games it is 14.0.
2. The defense. Over 2 games, the Vikings allowed 13.6 points to their opponent's QB1. The league average for that slot is 16.8, so that is -19%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 2 defensive games, only 40% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a -8% adjustment (x0.92).
4. Result. 14.0 x 0.92 = 12.9. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Baker Mayfield is to reach it as a QB1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (12.9) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 7.7 points, leaning on Baker Mayfield's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical QB swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 13.
With only 2 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- QB1s have averaged 262.5 passing yards, 1.0 passing TDs and 21.0 rushing yards against the Vikings across 2 games.
- The Vikings allow 13.6 PPR points to QB1s, -19% versus the league average of 16.8 (ranked 23 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a tough matchup.
- 1 of 2 games reached 15+ PPR points. Scores range from 7.7 to 19.5 (median 13.6).
- Every QB1 in the sample cleared 120 passing yards.
- QB1s scored a touchdown in 1 of 2 games (50%).
- Small sample: only 2 games so far. Treat these numbers as directional, not settled.
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.