Baker Mayfield
QB
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Top target Emeka Egbuka is questionable, which can lower the passing game.
A hurt top target or lead back nudges the projection up a little, since their work tends to shift to teammates. QB and offensive-line flags are shown for context but do not change the number.
This is how QBs have played against the Bears in the 2026 season.
| Wk | Team | Player | Cmp | Att | PaYd | PaTD | INT | Car | RuYd | RuTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  CAR | Bryce Young | 23 | 37 | 361 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 1 | 31.4 |
| 2 |  MIN | Carson Wentz | 11 | 20 | 143 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 6.3 |
| 3 |  PHI | Jalen Hurts | 16 | 25 | 153 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 25 | 1 | 12.6 |
| 4 |  NYJ | Geno Smith | 8 | 15 | 119 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8.8 |
| 5 |  GB | Jordan Love | 25 | 31 | 367 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 25.3 |
| 6 |  ATL | Michael Penix Jr. | 19 | 33 | 225 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 23.1 |
| 7 |  NE | Drake Maye | 24 | 31 | 321 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 26 | 1 | 27.4 |
| 8 |  SEA | Sam Darnold | 17 | 34 | 188 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 20 | 0 | 17.5 |
| Average | 17.9 | 28.3 | 234.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 2.1 | 11.8 | 0.4 | 19.1 | ||
| Median | 18.0 | 31.0 | 206.5 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 2.0 | 8.0 | 0.0 | 20.3 | ||
| High | 25 | 37 | 367 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 26 | 1 | 31.4 | ||
| Low | 8 | 15 | 119 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6.3 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Baker Mayfield should do vs the BearsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Bears, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Baker Mayfield has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Bears opponents to line them up with: the best QB they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Baker Mayfield will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Bears avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Baker Mayfield's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Baker Mayfield usually produces.
Projected is Baker Mayfield's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Bears were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Cmp | Att | PaYd | PaTD | INT | Car | RuYd | RuTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CIN | 23 | 28 | 216 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 30 | 1 | 11.6 |
| 2 | CLE | 21 | 34 | 182 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 29 | 0 | 12.2 |
| 3 | MIN | 17 | 34 | 217 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 11.3 |
| 7 | CAR | 7 | 11 | 64 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6.7 |
| 8 | ATL | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 0 | 1.4 |
| Mayfield avg | 13.6 | 22.0 | 135.8 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 3.2 | 16.0 | 0.2 | 8.6 | |
| Bears QB1 avg | 17.9 | 28.3 | 234.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 2.1 | 11.8 | 0.4 | 19.1 | |
| Difference | +4.3 | +6.3 | +98.8 | +1.0 | +0.1 | -1.1 | -4.3 | +0.2 | +10.4 | |
| Projected as QB1 | 15.2 | 24.5 | 151.4 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 3.6 | 17.8 | 0.2 | 11.0 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Mayfield averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Start / Sit · Baker MayfieldGood confidence · 11.1 proj pts1/10 start
- Baker Mayfield averages 8.6 PPR points over 5 games (recent-weighted 7.4) and has played as the team's QB1.
- The Bears have allowed 19.1 points to QB1s over 8 games (+16% vs league). The model applies 73% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a +11% adjustment.
- Last season's average (16.0) is blended in at 29% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Game environment -1%: Vegas total 47.5, implied 20.8 points for TB (league avg 22.6); Underdog by 6: likely to pass more while trailing; Mild weather (55F, 9 mph wind): no weather adjustment.
- Opposing-defense injuries (+2%): Opposing starter D'Marco Jackson (LB) is questionable, which helps the passing game. Opposing starter Malik Muhammad II (CB) is questionable, which helps the passing game.
- Projection: 11.1 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level QB scores about 19.1 and a top-tier one about 23.8.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Prediction & chance to scoreBaker Mayfield vs the Bears
Prediction for Baker Mayfield
Nobody knows which slot Baker Mayfield will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Bears.
I predict about 11.0 points for Baker Mayfield if playing as a QB1. Baker Mayfield has averaged 8.6 over 5 games, and the Bears have given up 19.1 to QB1s (+16% vs the league average of 16.5).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Baker Mayfield scored: Wk 1 11.6, Wk 2 12.2, Wk 3 11.3, Wk 7 6.7, Wk 8 1.4. Average 8.6; weighted toward recent games it is 9.9.
2. The defense. Over 8 games, the Bears allowed 19.1 points to their opponent's QB1. The league average for that slot is 16.5, so that is +16%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 8 defensive games, only 73% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +11% adjustment (x1.11).
4. Result. 9.9 x 1.11 = 11.0. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Baker Mayfield is to reach it as a QB1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (11.0) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 4.9 points, leaning on Baker Mayfield's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical QB swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 11.
With only 5 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- QB1s have averaged 234.6 passing yards, 1.6 passing TDs and 11.8 rushing yards against the Bears across 8 games.
- The Bears allow 19.1 PPR points to QB1s, +16% versus the league average of 16.5 (ranked 7 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a favorable matchup.
- Outlier: Week 1, Bryce Young (31.4 pts, 361 pass yds) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 19.1 vs 17.3; pass yds 234.6 vs 216.6. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- Outlier: Week 5, Jordan Love (367 pass yds) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pass yds 234.6 vs 215.7. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 5 of 8 games reached 15+ PPR points. Scores range from 6.3 to 31.4 (median 20.3).
- Every QB1 in the sample cleared 100 passing yards.
- QB1s scored a touchdown in 7 of 8 games (88%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.