Chase McLaughlin
K
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
This is how Ks have played against the Falcons in the 2026 season.
| Wk | Team | Player | FGM | FGA | 40+ | Lng | XP | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  PIT | Chris Boswell | 2 | 3 | 1 | 43 | 2 | 9.0 |
| 2 |  CAR | Ryan Fitzgerald | 2 | 2 | 0 | 37 | 4 | 10.0 |
| 3 |  GB | Trey Smack | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2.0 |
| 4 |  NO | Daniel Carlson | 1 | 2 | 0 | 27 | 3 | 6.0 |
| 5 |  BAL | Tyler Loop | 3 | 3 | 2 | 51 | 1 | 14.0 |
| 6 |  CHI | Cairo Santos | 1 | 2 | 1 | 50 | 4 | 9.0 |
| 7 |  SF | Eddy Pineiro | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2.0 |
| Average | 1.3 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 29.7 | 2.6 | 7.4 | ||
| Median | 1.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 37.0 | 2.0 | 9.0 | ||
| High | 3 | 3 | 2 | 51 | 4 | 14.0 | ||
| Low | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2.0 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed. Kicker scoring: FG 3/4/5 by distance, XP 1, missed FG under 40 yds -1.
How Chase McLaughlin should do vs the FalconsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Falcons, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Chase McLaughlin has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Falcons opponents to line them up with: the best K they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Chase McLaughlin will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Falcons avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Chase McLaughlin's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Chase McLaughlin usually produces.
Projected is Chase McLaughlin's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Falcons were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | FGM | FGA | 40+ | Lng | XP | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CIN | 2 | 2 | 1 | 51 | 3 | 11.0 |
| 2 | CLE | 4 | 4 | 2 | 59 | 1 | 16.0 |
| 3 | MIN | 3 | 3 | 1 | 54 | 1 | 12.0 |
| 4 | GB | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2.0 |
| 5 | DAL | 1 | 1 | 1 | 41 | 3 | 7.0 |
| 6 | PIT | 4 | 4 | 3 | 53 | 1 | 17.0 |
| 7 | CAR | 2 | 2 | 1 | 44 | 5 | 12.0 |
| 8 | ATL | 3 | 3 | 2 | 46 | 1 | 12.0 |
| McLaughlin avg | 2.4 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 43.5 | 2.1 | 11.1 | |
| Falcons K1 avg | 1.3 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 29.7 | 2.6 | 7.4 | |
| Difference | -1.1 | -0.5 | -0.8 | -13.8 | +0.4 | -3.7 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what McLaughlin averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Prediction & chance to scoreChase McLaughlin vs the Falcons
Prediction for Chase McLaughlin
Nobody knows which slot Chase McLaughlin will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Falcons.
I predict about 9.6 points for Chase McLaughlin if playing as a K1. Chase McLaughlin has averaged 11.0 over 7 games, and the Falcons have given up 7.4 to K1s (-15% vs the league average of 8.7).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Chase McLaughlin scored: Wk 1 11.0, Wk 2 16.0, Wk 3 12.0, Wk 4 2.0, Wk 5 7.0, Wk 6 17.0, Wk 7 12.0. Average 11.0; weighted toward recent games it is 10.7.
2. The defense. Over 7 games, the Falcons allowed 7.4 points to their opponent's K1. The league average for that slot is 8.7, so that is -15%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 7 defensive games, only 70% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a -10% adjustment (x0.90).
4. Result. 10.7 x 0.90 = 9.6. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Chase McLaughlin is to reach it as a K1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (9.6) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 5.2 points, leaning on Chase McLaughlin's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical K swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 10.
With only 7 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- K1s have averaged 1.3 field goals made, 1.9 field goal attempts and 2.6 extra points against the Falcons across 7 games.
- The Falcons allow 7.4 PPR points to K1s, -15% versus the league average of 8.7 (ranked 23 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a tough matchup.
- Outlier: Week 5, Tyler Loop (14.0 pts, 3 FG) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 7.4 vs 6.3; FG 1.3 vs 1.0. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- Outlier: Week 3, Trey Smack (2.0 pts) sits far below the other games and drags the averages down. Average with it vs without it: pts 7.4 vs 8.3. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 4 of 7 games reached 8+ PPR points. Scores range from 2.0 to 14.0 (median 9.0).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.