Craig Reynolds
RB
Washington Commanders
- Teammate Terry McLaurin (a top target) is on IR, so Reynolds may see more targets.
- Backfield mate Jacory Croskey-Merritt is on IR, so Reynolds could see more carries.
A hurt top target or lead back nudges the projection up a little, since their work tends to shift to teammates. QB and offensive-line flags are shown for context but do not change the number.
This is how RBs have played against the Rams in the 2026 season.
RB2 = the second-highest-scoring RB against Rams in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  SF | Kaelon Black | 14 | 65 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 8.0 |
| 2 |  NYG | Devin Singletary | 3 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.9 |
| 3 |  DEN | J.K. Dobbins | 17 | 49 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 6.3 |
| 4 |  PHI | Will Shipley | 6 | 23 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.3 |
| 5 |  BUF | Ty Johnson | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 72 | 0 | 11.2 |
| 6 |  ARI | Tyler Allgeier | 18 | 38 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 5.8 |
| 7 |  LV | Mike Washington Jr. | 6 | 27 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.7 |
| 8 |  LAC | Kimani Vidal | 8 | 23 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 5.0 |
| Average | 9.0 | 29.3 | 0.0 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 12.3 | 0.0 | 5.3 | ||
| Median | 7.0 | 25.0 | 0.0 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 4.5 | 0.0 | 5.4 | ||
| High | 18 | 65 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 72 | 0 | 11.2 | ||
| Low | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.9 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Craig Reynolds should do vs the RamsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Rams, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Craig Reynolds has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Rams opponents to line them up with: the best RB they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Craig Reynolds will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Rams avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Craig Reynolds's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Craig Reynolds usually produces.
Projected is Craig Reynolds's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Rams were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | IND | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.4 |
| Reynolds avg | 2.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.4 | |
| Rams RB2 avg | 9.0 | 29.3 | 0.0 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 12.3 | 0.0 | 5.3 | |
| Difference | +7.0 | +25.3 | +0.0 | +1.8 | +1.1 | +12.3 | +0.0 | +4.9 | |
| Projected as RB2 | 2.1 | 4.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.4 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Reynolds averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Start / Sit · Craig ReynoldsLow confidence · 0.4 proj pts1/10 start
- Craig Reynolds averages 0.4 PPR points over 1 game (recent-weighted 0.4) and has played as the team's RB2.
- The Rams have allowed 5.3 points to RB2s over 8 games (+4% vs league). The model applies 73% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a +3% adjustment.
- Game environment -1%: Vegas total 48.5, implied 22.0 points for WAS (league avg 22.6); Underdog by 4.5: likely to pass more while trailing; Mild weather (61F, 11 mph wind): no weather adjustment.
- QB change: Jayden Daniels is now throwing (6.8 yds/att vs 6.6 earlier), x1.02.
- Opposing-defense injuries (+3%): Opposing starter Trent McDuffie (CB) is questionable, which helps the passing game. Opposing starter Kam Curl (S) is questionable, which helps the passing game.
- Teammate injuries (+1%): Teammate Terry McLaurin (a top target) is on IR, which can mean extra looks for Reynolds.
- Projection: 0.4 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level RB scores about 13.1 and a top-tier one about 20.9.
- Confidence is low: too few games for either the player or the defense. Use this as a rough lean, not a lock.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Prediction & chance to scoreCraig Reynolds vs the Rams
Prediction for Craig Reynolds
Nobody knows which slot Craig Reynolds will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Rams.
I predict about 0.4 points for Craig Reynolds if playing as a RB2. Craig Reynolds has averaged 0.4 over 1 game, and the Rams have given up 5.3 to RB2s (+4% vs the league average of 5.1).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Craig Reynolds scored: Wk 4 0.4. Average 0.4; weighted toward recent games it is 0.4.
2. The defense. Over 8 games, the Rams allowed 5.3 points to their opponent's RB2. The league average for that slot is 5.1, so that is +4%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 8 defensive games, only 73% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +3% adjustment (x1.03).
4. Result. 0.4 x 1.03 = 0.4. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Craig Reynolds is to reach it as a RB2.
Why this percentage?
The projection (0.4) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 0.2 points, leaning on Craig Reynolds's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical RB swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 0.
With only 1 game of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- RB2s have averaged 9.0 carries, 29.3 rushing yards and 1.1 receptions against the Rams across 8 games.
- The Rams allow 5.3 PPR points to RB2s, +4% versus the league average of 5.1 (ranked 10 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a near-average matchup.
- Outlier: Week 5, Ty Johnson (11.2 pts, 0 car) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 5.3 vs 4.4; car 9.0 vs 10.3. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- Outlier: Week 1, Kaelon Black (65 rush yds) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: rush yds 29.3 vs 24.1. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 1 of 8 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 0.9 to 11.2 (median 5.4).
- RB2s scored a touchdown in 0 of 8 games (0%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.