A.J. Brown
WR
New England PatriotsQ
- Teammate Hunter Henry (a top target) is questionable.
A hurt top target or lead back nudges the projection up a little, since their work tends to shift to teammates. QB and offensive-line flags are shown for context but do not change the number.
This is how WRs have played against the Lions in the 2026 season.
WR2 = the second-highest-scoring WR against Lions in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  NO | Devaughn Vele | 9 | 7 | 69 | 1 | 19.9 |
| 2 |  BUF | Josh Palmer | 3 | 1 | 43 | 1 | 11.3 |
| 3 |  NYJ | Sterling Shepard | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 3.3 |
| 4 |  CAR | John Metchie III | 5 | 3 | 37 | 0 | 6.7 |
| 5 |  ARI | Michael Wilson | 7 | 4 | 30 | 0 | 7.3 |
| 7 |  GB | Matthew Golden | 12 | 6 | 39 | 0 | 9.9 |
| 8 |  MIN | Jordan Addison | 8 | 3 | 66 | 0 | 11.6 |
| Average | 6.4 | 3.6 | 41.0 | 0.3 | 10.0 | ||
| Median | 7.0 | 3.0 | 39.0 | 0.0 | 9.9 | ||
| High | 12 | 7 | 69 | 1 | 19.9 | ||
| Low | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 3.3 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How A.J. Brown should do vs the LionsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Lions, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game A.J. Brown has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Lions opponents to line them up with: the best WR they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot A.J. Brown will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Lions avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus A.J. Brown's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than A.J. Brown usually produces.
Projected is A.J. Brown's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Lions were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SEA | 4 | 3 | 26 | 0 | 5.6 |
| 6 | NYJ | 10 | 3 | 27 | 0 | 5.7 |
| 7 | CHI | 6 | 3 | 48 | 0 | 7.8 |
| Brown avg | 6.7 | 3.0 | 33.7 | 0.0 | 6.4 | |
| Lions WR2 avg | 6.4 | 3.6 | 41.0 | 0.3 | 10.0 | |
| Difference | -0.2 | +0.6 | +7.3 | +0.3 | +3.6 | |
| Projected as WR2 | 7.3 | 3.3 | 37.0 | 0.0 | 10.8 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Brown averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Start / Sit · A.J. BrownGood confidence · 10.8 proj pts5/10 start
- A.J. Brown averages 6.4 PPR points over 3 games (recent-weighted 6.5) and has played as the team's WR2.
- The Lions have allowed 10.0 points to WR2s over 7 games (+14% vs league). The model applies 70% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a +10% adjustment.
- Last season's average (14.7) is blended in at 40% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Injury report: Questionable. The projection assumes the player plays.
- Projection: 10.8 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level WR scores about 12.2 and a top-tier one about 20.9.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Prediction & chance to scoreA.J. Brown vs the Lions
Prediction for A.J. Brown
Nobody knows which slot A.J. Brown will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Lions.
I predict about 10.8 points for A.J. Brown if playing as a WR2. A.J. Brown has averaged 6.4 over 3 games, and the Lions have given up 10.0 to WR2s (+14% vs the league average of 8.8).
How this projection is built
1. The player. A.J. Brown scored: Wk 1 5.6, Wk 6 5.7, Wk 7 7.8. Average 6.4; weighted toward recent games it is 9.8.
2. The defense. Over 7 games, the Lions allowed 10.0 points to their opponent's WR2. The league average for that slot is 8.8, so that is +14%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 7 defensive games, only 70% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +10% adjustment (x1.10).
4. Result. 9.8 x 1.10 = 10.8. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely A.J. Brown is to reach it as a WR2.
Why this percentage?
The projection (10.8) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 4.3 points, leaning on A.J. Brown's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical WR swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 11.
With only 3 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- WR2s have averaged 3.6 receptions, 41.0 receiving yards and 0.3 receiving TDs against the Lions across 7 games.
- The Lions allow 10.0 PPR points to WR2s, +14% versus the league average of 8.8 (ranked 7 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a favorable matchup.
- Outlier: Week 3, Sterling Shepard (3.3 pts, 1 rec, 3 yds) sits far below the other games and drags the averages down. Average with it vs without it: pts 10.0 vs 11.1; rec 3.6 vs 4.0; yds 41.0 vs 47.3. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- Outlier: Week 1, Devaughn Vele (19.9 pts, 7 rec) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 10.0 vs 8.3; rec 3.6 vs 3.0. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 3 of 7 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 3.3 to 19.9 (median 9.9).
- WR2s scored a touchdown in 2 of 7 games (29%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.