Jonathan Taylor
RB
Indianapolis Colts▼ Cold
This is how RBs have played against the Chiefs in the 2026 season.
RB1 = the highest-scoring RB against Chiefs in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  DEN | RJ Harvey | 3 | 18 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 23 | 0 | 8.1 |
| Average | 3.0 | 18.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 23.0 | 0.0 | 8.1 | ||
| Median | 3.0 | 18.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 23.0 | 0.0 | 8.1 | ||
| High | 3 | 18 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 23 | 0 | 8.1 | ||
| Low | 3 | 18 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 23 | 0 | 8.1 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Jonathan Taylor should do vs the ChiefsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Chiefs, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Jonathan Taylor has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Chiefs opponents to line them up with: the best RB they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Jonathan Taylor will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Chiefs avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Jonathan Taylor's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Jonathan Taylor usually produces.
Projected is Jonathan Taylor's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Chiefs were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BAL | 19 | 98 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 23 | 0 | 25.1 |
| 2 | KC | 24 | 92 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 40 | 0 | 29.2 |
| 3 | HOU | 23 | 68 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 9.2 |
| 4 | WAS | 20 | 95 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 22.7 |
| 5 | PIT | 15 | 45 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 37 | 0 | 11.2 |
| 6 | TEN | 21 | 94 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 57 | 0 | 21.1 |
| 7 | MIN | 18 | 95 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 15 | 0 | 19.0 |
| 8 | JAX | 8 | 23 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 24 | 0 | 6.7 |
| Taylor avg | 18.5 | 76.3 | 1.0 | 3.9 | 2.6 | 25.3 | 0.0 | 18.0 | |
| Chiefs RB1 avg | 3.0 | 18.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 23.0 | 0.0 | 8.1 | |
| Difference | -15.5 | -58.3 | -1.0 | +0.1 | +1.4 | -2.3 | +0.0 | -9.9 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Taylor averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Prediction & chance to scoreJonathan Taylor vs the Chiefs
Prediction for Jonathan Taylor
Nobody knows which slot Jonathan Taylor will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Chiefs.
I predict about 19.5 points for Jonathan Taylor if playing as a RB1. Jonathan Taylor has averaged 25.1 over 1 game, and the Chiefs have given up 8.1 to RB1s (-54% vs the league average of 17.5).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Jonathan Taylor scored: Wk 1 25.1. Average 25.1; weighted toward recent games it is 22.6.
2. The defense. Over 1 game, the Chiefs allowed 8.1 points to their opponent's RB1. The league average for that slot is 17.5, so that is -54%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 1 defensive game, only 25% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a -13% adjustment (x0.87).
4. Result. 22.6 x 0.87 = 19.5. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Jonathan Taylor is to reach it as a RB1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (19.5) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 11.7 points, leaning on Jonathan Taylor's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical RB swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 20.
With only 1 game of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- RB1s have averaged 3.0 carries, 18.0 rushing yards and 4.0 receptions against the Chiefs across 1 game.
- The Chiefs allow 8.1 PPR points to RB1s, -54% versus the league average of 17.5 (ranked 28 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a tough matchup.
- RB1s scored a touchdown in 0 of 1 games (0%).
- Small sample: only 1 game so far. Treat these numbers as directional, not settled.
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.