Jonathan Taylor
RB
Indianapolis Colts▼ Cold
This is how RBs have played against the Cowboys in the 2026 season.
RB1 = the highest-scoring RB against Cowboys in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  NYG | Cam Skattebo | 18 | 81 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14.1 |
| 2 |  WAS | Rachaad White | 7 | 43 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 40 | 0 | 14.3 |
| 3 |  BAL | Derrick Henry | 26 | 89 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21.9 |
| 4 |  HOU | Woody Marks | 6 | 22 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8.2 |
| 5 |  TB | Bucky Irving | 21 | 165 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 1 | 31.5 |
| 6 |  GB | Pierre Strong | 11 | 28 | 0 | 6 | 5 | 39 | 0 | 11.7 |
| 7 |  PHI | Saquon Barkley | 7 | 62 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 15.1 |
| 8 |  ARI | Tyler Allgeier | 11 | 147 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 44 | 1 | 36.1 |
| Average | 13.4 | 79.6 | 0.9 | 3.0 | 2.6 | 17.8 | 0.3 | 19.1 | ||
| Median | 11.0 | 71.5 | 1.0 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 9.5 | 0.0 | 14.7 | ||
| High | 26 | 165 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 44 | 1 | 36.1 | ||
| Low | 6 | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8.2 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Jonathan Taylor should do vs the CowboysSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Cowboys, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Jonathan Taylor has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Cowboys opponents to line them up with: the best RB they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Jonathan Taylor will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Cowboys avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Jonathan Taylor's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Jonathan Taylor usually produces.
Projected is Jonathan Taylor's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Cowboys were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BAL | 19 | 98 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 23 | 0 | 25.1 |
| 2 | KC | 24 | 92 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 40 | 0 | 29.2 |
| 3 | HOU | 23 | 68 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 9.2 |
| 4 | WAS | 20 | 95 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 22.7 |
| 5 | PIT | 15 | 45 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 37 | 0 | 11.2 |
| 6 | TEN | 21 | 94 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 57 | 0 | 21.1 |
| 7 | MIN | 18 | 95 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 15 | 0 | 19.0 |
| 8 | JAX | 8 | 23 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 24 | 0 | 6.7 |
| Taylor avg | 18.5 | 76.3 | 1.0 | 3.9 | 2.6 | 25.3 | 0.0 | 18.0 | |
| Cowboys RB1 avg | 13.4 | 79.6 | 0.9 | 3.0 | 2.6 | 17.8 | 0.3 | 19.1 | |
| Difference | -5.1 | +3.4 | -0.1 | -0.9 | +0.0 | -7.5 | +0.3 | +1.1 | |
| Projected as RB1 | 21.0 | 86.6 | 1.1 | 4.4 | 3.0 | 28.7 | 0.0 | 19.3 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Taylor averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Start / Sit · Jonathan TaylorGood confidence · 20.2 proj pts7/10 start
- Jonathan Taylor averages 18.0 PPR points over 8 games (recent-weighted 15.9) and has played as the team's RB1.
- The Cowboys have allowed 19.1 points to RB1s over 8 games (+19% vs league). The model applies 73% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a +14% adjustment.
- Last season's average (21.3) is blended in at 20% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Game environment +2%: Vegas total 51.5, implied 23.0 points for IND (league avg 22.6); Underdog by 5.5: likely to pass more while trailing; Indoors: no weather effect, a small boost for passing and kicking.
- Opposing-defense injuries (+2%): Opposing starter Jalen Thompson (CB) is on IR, which helps the passing game. Opposing starter Caleb Downs (S) is questionable, which helps the passing game.
- Projection: 20.2 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level RB scores about 13.1 and a top-tier one about 20.9.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Prediction & chance to scoreJonathan Taylor vs the Cowboys
Prediction for Jonathan Taylor
Nobody knows which slot Jonathan Taylor will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Cowboys.
I predict about 19.3 points for Jonathan Taylor if playing as a RB1. Jonathan Taylor has averaged 18.0 over 8 games, and the Cowboys have given up 19.1 to RB1s (+19% vs the league average of 16.1).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Jonathan Taylor scored: Wk 1 25.1, Wk 2 29.2, Wk 3 9.2, Wk 4 22.7, Wk 5 11.2, Wk 6 21.1, Wk 7 19.0, Wk 8 6.7. Average 18.0; weighted toward recent games it is 17.0.
2. The defense. Over 8 games, the Cowboys allowed 19.1 points to their opponent's RB1. The league average for that slot is 16.1, so that is +19%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 8 defensive games, only 73% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +14% adjustment (x1.14).
4. Result. 17.0 x 1.14 = 19.3. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Jonathan Taylor is to reach it as a RB1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (19.3) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 8.1 points, leaning on Jonathan Taylor's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical RB swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 19.
With only 8 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- RB1s have averaged 13.4 carries, 79.6 rushing yards and 2.6 receptions against the Cowboys across 8 games.
- The Cowboys allow 19.1 PPR points to RB1s, +19% versus the league average of 16.1 (ranked 4 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a favorable matchup.
- Outlier: Week 5, Bucky Irving (31.5 pts, 21 car, 165 rush yds) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 19.1 vs 17.3; car 13.4 vs 12.3; rush yds 79.6 vs 67.4. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- Outlier: Week 8, Tyler Allgeier (36.1 pts, 147 rush yds) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 19.1 vs 16.7; rush yds 79.6 vs 70.0. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 7 of 8 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 8.2 to 36.1 (median 14.7).
- RB1s scored a touchdown in 6 of 8 games (75%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.