Jonathan Taylor
RB
Indianapolis Colts▼ Cold
This is how RBs have played against the Commanders in the 2026 season.
RB1 = the highest-scoring RB against Commanders in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  PHI | Saquon Barkley | 15 | 83 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 9.0 |
| 2 |  DAL | Javonte Williams | 12 | 30 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 20 | 0 | 8.0 |
| 3 |  SEA | George Holani | 3 | 10 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 48 | 0 | 10.8 |
| Average | 10.0 | 41.0 | 0.0 | 3.7 | 3.0 | 21.7 | 0.0 | 9.3 | ||
| Median | 12.0 | 30.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 20.0 | 0.0 | 9.0 | ||
| High | 15 | 83 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 48 | 0 | 10.8 | ||
| Low | 3 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 8.0 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Jonathan Taylor should do vs the CommandersSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Commanders, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Jonathan Taylor has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Commanders opponents to line them up with: the best RB they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Jonathan Taylor will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Commanders avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Jonathan Taylor's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Jonathan Taylor usually produces.
Projected is Jonathan Taylor's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Commanders were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BAL | 19 | 98 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 23 | 0 | 25.1 |
| 2 | KC | 24 | 92 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 40 | 0 | 29.2 |
| 3 | HOU | 23 | 68 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 9.2 |
| 4 | WAS | 20 | 95 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 22.7 |
| 5 | PIT | 15 | 45 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 37 | 0 | 11.2 |
| 6 | TEN | 21 | 94 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 57 | 0 | 21.1 |
| 7 | MIN | 18 | 95 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 15 | 0 | 19.0 |
| 8 | JAX | 8 | 23 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 24 | 0 | 6.7 |
| Taylor avg | 18.5 | 76.3 | 1.0 | 3.9 | 2.6 | 25.3 | 0.0 | 18.0 | |
| Commanders RB1 avg | 10.0 | 41.0 | 0.0 | 3.7 | 3.0 | 21.7 | 0.0 | 9.3 | |
| Difference | -8.5 | -35.3 | -1.0 | -0.2 | +0.4 | -3.6 | +0.0 | -8.8 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Taylor averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Prediction & chance to scoreJonathan Taylor vs the Commanders
Prediction for Jonathan Taylor
Nobody knows which slot Jonathan Taylor will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Commanders.
I predict about 16.4 points for Jonathan Taylor if playing as a RB1. Jonathan Taylor has averaged 21.2 over 3 games, and the Commanders have given up 9.3 to RB1s (-40% vs the league average of 15.4).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Jonathan Taylor scored: Wk 1 25.1, Wk 2 29.2, Wk 3 9.2. Average 21.2; weighted toward recent games it is 20.5.
2. The defense. Over 3 games, the Commanders allowed 9.3 points to their opponent's RB1. The league average for that slot is 15.4, so that is -40%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 3 defensive games, only 50% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a -20% adjustment (x0.80).
4. Result. 20.5 x 0.80 = 16.4. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Jonathan Taylor is to reach it as a RB1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (16.4) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 10.2 points, leaning on Jonathan Taylor's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical RB swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 16.
With only 3 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- RB1s have averaged 10.0 carries, 41.0 rushing yards and 3.0 receptions against the Commanders across 3 games.
- The Commanders allow 9.3 PPR points to RB1s, -40% versus the league average of 15.4 (ranked 31 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a tough matchup.
- Outlier: Week 3, George Holani (3 car, 10 rush yds) sits far below the other games and drags the averages down. Average with it vs without it: car 10.0 vs 13.5; rush yds 41.0 vs 56.5. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- Outlier: Week 1, Saquon Barkley (15 car, 83 rush yds) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: car 10.0 vs 7.5; rush yds 41.0 vs 20.0. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 1 of 3 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 8.0 to 10.8 (median 9.0).
- RB1s scored a touchdown in 0 of 3 games (0%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.