Jordan Love
QB
Green Bay Packers▲ Hot
- Top target Christian Watson is questionable, which can lower the passing game.
A hurt top target or lead back nudges the projection up a little, since their work tends to shift to teammates. QB and offensive-line flags are shown for context but do not change the number.
This is how QBs have played against the Panthers in the 2026 season.
| Wk | Team | Player | Cmp | Att | PaYd | PaTD | INT | Car | RuYd | RuTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  CHI | Caleb Williams | 21 | 29 | 269 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 65 | 2 | 37.3 |
| 2 |  ATL | Jack Strand | 8 | 15 | 59 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 0 | -0.0 |
| 3 |  CLE | Deshaun Watson | 16 | 30 | 144 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 45 | 0 | 20.3 |
| 4 |  DET | Jared Goff | 32 | 52 | 412 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20.5 |
| 6 |  PHI | Tanner McKee | 26 | 45 | 215 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12.6 |
| 7 |  TB | Baker Mayfield | 7 | 11 | 64 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6.7 |
| Average | 18.3 | 30.3 | 193.8 | 1.2 | 0.2 | 4.2 | 21.2 | 0.3 | 16.2 | ||
| Median | 18.5 | 29.5 | 179.5 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.5 | 8.5 | 0.0 | 16.4 | ||
| High | 32 | 52 | 412 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 65 | 2 | 37.3 | ||
| Low | 7 | 11 | 59 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0.0 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Jordan Love should do vs the PanthersSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Panthers, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Jordan Love has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Panthers opponents to line them up with: the best QB they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Jordan Love will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Panthers avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Jordan Love's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Jordan Love usually produces.
Projected is Jordan Love's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Panthers were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Cmp | Att | PaYd | PaTD | INT | Car | RuYd | RuTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MIN | 21 | 42 | 387 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19.5 |
| 2 | NYJ | 16 | 29 | 145 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13.8 |
| 3 | ATL | 28 | 53 | 312 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18.5 |
| 4 | TB | 22 | 30 | 197 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -8 | 0 | 13.1 |
| 5 | CHI | 25 | 31 | 367 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 25.3 |
| 6 | DAL | 23 | 41 | 276 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 1 | 20.2 |
| 7 | DET | 27 | 45 | 274 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17.0 |
| 8 | CAR | 30 | 41 | 288 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21.5 |
| Love avg | 24.0 | 39.0 | 280.8 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.1 | 18.6 | |
| Panthers QB1 avg | 18.3 | 30.3 | 193.8 | 1.2 | 0.2 | 4.2 | 21.2 | 0.3 | 16.2 | |
| Difference | -5.7 | -8.7 | -86.9 | -0.8 | -0.6 | +2.8 | +19.9 | +0.2 | -2.4 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Love averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Prediction & chance to scoreJordan Love vs the Panthers
Prediction for Jordan Love
Nobody knows which slot Jordan Love will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Panthers.
I predict about 17.6 points for Jordan Love if playing as a QB1. Jordan Love has averaged 18.2 over 7 games, and the Panthers have given up 16.2 to QB1s (-2% vs the league average of 16.6).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Jordan Love scored: Wk 1 19.5, Wk 2 13.8, Wk 3 18.5, Wk 4 13.1, Wk 5 25.3, Wk 6 20.2, Wk 7 17.0. Average 18.2; weighted toward recent games it is 17.9.
2. The defense. Over 6 games, the Panthers allowed 16.2 points to their opponent's QB1. The league average for that slot is 16.6, so that is -2%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 6 defensive games, only 67% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a -2% adjustment (x0.98).
4. Result. 17.9 x 0.98 = 17.6. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Jordan Love is to reach it as a QB1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (17.6) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 7.0 points, leaning on Jordan Love's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical QB swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 18.
With only 7 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- QB1s have averaged 193.8 passing yards, 1.2 passing TDs and 21.2 rushing yards against the Panthers across 6 games.
- The Panthers allow 16.2 PPR points to QB1s, -2% versus the league average of 16.6 (ranked 19 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a near-average matchup.
- Outlier: Week 7, Baker Mayfield (6.7 pts, 64 pass yds) sits far below the other games and drags the averages down. Average with it vs without it: pts 16.2 vs 18.1; pass yds 193.8 vs 219.8. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- Outlier: Week 2, Jack Strand (-0.0 pts, 59 pass yds) sits far below the other games and drags the averages down. Average with it vs without it: pts 16.2 vs 19.5; pass yds 193.8 vs 220.8. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 3 of 6 games reached 15+ PPR points. Scores range from -0.0 to 37.3 (median 16.4).
- Every QB1 in the sample cleared 50 passing yards.
- QB1s scored a touchdown in 5 of 6 games (83%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.