Justin Jefferson
WR
Minnesota Vikings
- Quarterback Kyler Murray is questionable. Watch the status.
A hurt top target or lead back nudges the projection up a little, since their work tends to shift to teammates. QB and offensive-line flags are shown for context but do not change the number.
This is how WRs have played against the Bears in the 2026 season.
WR1 = the highest-scoring WR against Bears in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  CAR | Jalen Coker | 9 | 8 | 138 | 2 | 33.8 |
| 2 | MIN | Justin Jefferson | 6 | 3 | 55 | 0 | 8.5 |
| 3 |  PHI | DeVonta Smith | 8 | 6 | 65 | 0 | 12.5 |
| 4 |  NYJ | Isaiah Williams | 3 | 2 | 73 | 1 | 15.3 |
| 5 |  GB | Christian Watson | 8 | 6 | 143 | 2 | 32.3 |
| 6 |  ATL | Jahan Dotson | 5 | 3 | 87 | 1 | 17.7 |
| 7 |  NE | A.J. Brown | 6 | 3 | 48 | 0 | 7.8 |
| 8 |  SEA | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 11 | 6 | 118 | 1 | 23.8 |
| Average | 7.0 | 4.6 | 90.9 | 0.9 | 19.0 | ||
| Median | 7.0 | 4.5 | 80.0 | 1.0 | 16.5 | ||
| High | 11 | 8 | 143 | 2 | 33.8 | ||
| Low | 3 | 2 | 48 | 0 | 7.8 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Justin Jefferson should do vs the BearsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Bears, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Justin Jefferson has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Bears opponents to line them up with: the best WR they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Justin Jefferson will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Bears avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Justin Jefferson's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Justin Jefferson usually produces.
Projected is Justin Jefferson's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Bears were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GB | 9 | 8 | 92 | 2 | 31.2 |
| 2 | CHI | 6 | 3 | 55 | 0 | 8.5 |
| 3 | TB | 2 | 2 | 32 | 0 | 5.2 |
| 5 | NO | 7 | 6 | 79 | 1 | 18.8 |
| 7 | IND | 7 | 4 | 44 | 0 | 8.4 |
| 8 | DET | 9 | 5 | 33 | 1 | 14.3 |
| Jefferson avg | 6.7 | 4.7 | 55.8 | 0.7 | 14.4 | |
| Bears WR1 avg | 7.0 | 4.6 | 90.9 | 0.9 | 19.0 | |
| Difference | +0.3 | -0.0 | +35.0 | +0.2 | +4.6 | |
| Projected as WR1 | 7.2 | 5.0 | 60.2 | 0.7 | 14.0 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Jefferson averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Start / Sit · Justin JeffersonGood confidence · 14.0 proj pts7/10 start
- Justin Jefferson averages 14.4 PPR points over 6 games (recent-weighted 13.4) and has played as the team's WR1.
- The Bears have allowed 19.0 points to WR1s over 8 games (+11% vs league). The model applies 73% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a +8% adjustment.
- Last season's average (11.9) is blended in at 25% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Projection: 14.0 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level WR scores about 12.2 and a top-tier one about 20.9.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Prediction & chance to scoreJustin Jefferson vs the Bears
Prediction for Justin Jefferson
Nobody knows which slot Justin Jefferson will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Bears.
I predict about 14.0 points for Justin Jefferson if playing as a WR1. Justin Jefferson has averaged 14.4 over 6 games, and the Bears have given up 19.0 to WR1s (+11% vs the league average of 17.1).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Justin Jefferson scored: Wk 1 31.2, Wk 2 8.5, Wk 3 5.2, Wk 5 18.8, Wk 7 8.4, Wk 8 14.3. Average 14.4; weighted toward recent games it is 13.0.
2. The defense. Over 8 games, the Bears allowed 19.0 points to their opponent's WR1. The league average for that slot is 17.1, so that is +11%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 8 defensive games, only 73% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +8% adjustment (x1.08).
4. Result. 13.0 x 1.08 = 14.0. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Justin Jefferson is to reach it as a WR1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (14.0) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 9.6 points, leaning on Justin Jefferson's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical WR swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 14.
With only 6 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- WR1s have averaged 4.6 receptions, 90.9 receiving yards and 0.9 receiving TDs against the Bears across 8 games.
- The Bears allow 19.0 PPR points to WR1s, +11% versus the league average of 17.1 (ranked 10 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a favorable matchup.
- Outlier: Week 1, Jalen Coker (33.8 pts, 8 rec, 138 yds) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 19.0 vs 16.8; rec 4.6 vs 4.1; yds 90.9 vs 84.1. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- Outlier: Week 5, Christian Watson (32.3 pts, 143 yds) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 19.0 vs 17.1; yds 90.9 vs 83.4. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 6 of 8 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 7.8 to 33.8 (median 16.5).
- Every WR1 in the sample cleared 40 receiving yards.
- WR1s scored a touchdown in 5 of 8 games (63%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.