Justin Jefferson
WR
Minnesota Vikings
- Quarterback Kyler Murray is questionable. Watch the status.
A hurt top target or lead back nudges the projection up a little, since their work tends to shift to teammates. QB and offensive-line flags are shown for context but do not change the number.
This is how WRs have played against the Colts in the 2026 season.
WR1 = the highest-scoring WR against Colts in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  BAL | Zay Flowers | 6 | 5 | 150 | 1 | 26.0 |
| 2 |  KC | Xavier Worthy | 7 | 5 | 25 | 1 | 13.5 |
| 3 |  HOU | Xavier Hutchinson | 6 | 3 | 51 | 0 | 8.5 |
| 4 |  WAS | Treylon Burks | 3 | 1 | 47 | 1 | 11.7 |
| 5 |  PIT | Germie Bernard | 9 | 6 | 80 | 0 | 14.4 |
| 6 |  TEN | Carnell Tate | 7 | 6 | 70 | 1 | 19.0 |
| Average | 6.3 | 4.3 | 70.5 | 0.7 | 15.5 | ||
| Median | 6.5 | 5.0 | 60.5 | 1.0 | 13.9 | ||
| High | 9 | 6 | 150 | 1 | 26.0 | ||
| Low | 3 | 1 | 25 | 0 | 8.5 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Justin Jefferson should do vs the ColtsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Colts, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Justin Jefferson has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Colts opponents to line them up with: the best WR they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Justin Jefferson will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Colts avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Justin Jefferson's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Justin Jefferson usually produces.
Projected is Justin Jefferson's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Colts were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GB | 9 | 8 | 92 | 2 | 31.2 |
| 2 | CHI | 6 | 3 | 55 | 0 | 8.5 |
| 3 | TB | 2 | 2 | 32 | 0 | 5.2 |
| 5 | NO | 7 | 6 | 79 | 1 | 18.8 |
| 7 | IND | 7 | 4 | 44 | 0 | 8.4 |
| 8 | DET | 9 | 5 | 33 | 1 | 14.3 |
| Jefferson avg | 6.7 | 4.7 | 55.8 | 0.7 | 14.4 | |
| Colts WR1 avg | 6.3 | 4.3 | 70.5 | 0.7 | 15.5 | |
| Difference | -0.3 | -0.3 | +14.7 | +0.0 | +1.1 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Jefferson averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Prediction & chance to scoreJustin Jefferson vs the Colts
Prediction for Justin Jefferson
Nobody knows which slot Justin Jefferson will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Colts.
I predict about 12.9 points for Justin Jefferson if playing as a WR1. Justin Jefferson has averaged 15.9 over 4 games, and the Colts have given up 15.5 to WR1s (-11% vs the league average of 17.5).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Justin Jefferson scored: Wk 1 31.2, Wk 2 8.5, Wk 3 5.2, Wk 5 18.8. Average 15.9; weighted toward recent games it is 14.0.
2. The defense. Over 6 games, the Colts allowed 15.5 points to their opponent's WR1. The league average for that slot is 17.5, so that is -11%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 6 defensive games, only 67% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a -7% adjustment (x0.93).
4. Result. 14.0 x 0.93 = 12.9. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Justin Jefferson is to reach it as a WR1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (12.9) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 10.4 points, leaning on Justin Jefferson's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical WR swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 13.
With only 4 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- WR1s have averaged 4.3 receptions, 70.5 receiving yards and 0.7 receiving TDs against the Colts across 6 games.
- The Colts allow 15.5 PPR points to WR1s, -11% versus the league average of 17.5 (ranked 22 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a tough matchup.
- Outlier: Week 1, Zay Flowers (26.0 pts, 150 yds) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 15.5 vs 13.4; yds 70.5 vs 54.6. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- Outlier: Week 2, Xavier Worthy (25 yds) sits far below the other games and drags the averages down. Average with it vs without it: yds 70.5 vs 79.6. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 5 of 6 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 8.5 to 26.0 (median 13.9).
- WR1s scored a touchdown in 4 of 6 games (67%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.