Justin Jefferson
WR
Minnesota Vikings
- Quarterback Kyler Murray is questionable. Watch the status.
A hurt top target or lead back nudges the projection up a little, since their work tends to shift to teammates. QB and offensive-line flags are shown for context but do not change the number.
This is how WRs have played against the 49ers in the 2026 season.
WR1 = the highest-scoring WR against 49ers in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  LA | Puka Nacua | 9 | 5 | 74 | 0 | 12.4 |
| 2 |  MIA | Ryan Miller | 1 | 1 | 77 | 1 | 14.7 |
| 3 |  ARI | Michael Wilson | 17 | 11 | 89 | 1 | 25.9 |
| 4 |  DEN | Jaylen Waddle | 6 | 5 | 35 | 1 | 14.5 |
| 5 |  SEA | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 8 | 5 | 102 | 1 | 22.8 |
| 6 |  WAS | Stefon Diggs | 7 | 6 | 44 | 1 | 16.4 |
| 7 |  ATL | Drake London | 10 | 7 | 66 | 1 | 19.6 |
| Average | 8.3 | 5.7 | 69.6 | 0.9 | 18.0 | ||
| Median | 8.0 | 5.0 | 74.0 | 1.0 | 16.4 | ||
| High | 17 | 11 | 102 | 1 | 25.9 | ||
| Low | 1 | 1 | 35 | 0 | 12.4 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Justin Jefferson should do vs the 49ersSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the 49ers, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Justin Jefferson has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of 49ers opponents to line them up with: the best WR they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Justin Jefferson will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
49ers avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Justin Jefferson's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Justin Jefferson usually produces.
Projected is Justin Jefferson's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the 49ers were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GB | 9 | 8 | 92 | 2 | 31.2 |
| 2 | CHI | 6 | 3 | 55 | 0 | 8.5 |
| 3 | TB | 2 | 2 | 32 | 0 | 5.2 |
| 5 | NO | 7 | 6 | 79 | 1 | 18.8 |
| 7 | IND | 7 | 4 | 44 | 0 | 8.4 |
| 8 | DET | 9 | 5 | 33 | 1 | 14.3 |
| Jefferson avg | 6.7 | 4.7 | 55.8 | 0.7 | 14.4 | |
| 49ers WR1 avg | 8.3 | 5.7 | 69.6 | 0.9 | 18.0 | |
| Difference | +1.6 | +1.0 | +13.7 | +0.2 | +3.6 | |
| Projected as WR1 | 6.9 | 4.8 | 57.9 | 0.7 | 13.5 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Jefferson averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Start / Sit · Justin JeffersonGood confidence · 13.5 proj pts7/10 start
- Justin Jefferson averages 14.4 PPR points over 6 games (recent-weighted 13.4) and has played as the team's WR1.
- The 49ers have allowed 18.0 points to WR1s over 7 games (+5% vs league). The model applies 70% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a +4% adjustment.
- Last season's average (11.9) is blended in at 25% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Projection: 13.5 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level WR scores about 12.2 and a top-tier one about 20.9.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Prediction & chance to scoreJustin Jefferson vs the 49ers
Prediction for Justin Jefferson
Nobody knows which slot Justin Jefferson will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the 49ers.
I predict about 13.5 points for Justin Jefferson if playing as a WR1. Justin Jefferson has averaged 14.4 over 6 games, and the 49ers have given up 18.0 to WR1s (+5% vs the league average of 17.1).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Justin Jefferson scored: Wk 1 31.2, Wk 2 8.5, Wk 3 5.2, Wk 5 18.8, Wk 7 8.4, Wk 8 14.3. Average 14.4; weighted toward recent games it is 13.0.
2. The defense. Over 7 games, the 49ers allowed 18.0 points to their opponent's WR1. The league average for that slot is 17.1, so that is +5%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 7 defensive games, only 70% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +4% adjustment (x1.04).
4. Result. 13.0 x 1.04 = 13.5. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Justin Jefferson is to reach it as a WR1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (13.5) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 9.6 points, leaning on Justin Jefferson's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical WR swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 13.
With only 6 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- WR1s have averaged 5.7 receptions, 69.6 receiving yards and 0.9 receiving TDs against the 49ers across 7 games.
- The 49ers allow 18.0 PPR points to WR1s, +5% versus the league average of 17.1 (ranked 17 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a near-average matchup.
- Outlier: Week 3, Michael Wilson (11 rec) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: rec 5.7 vs 4.8. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- Outlier: Week 2, Ryan Miller (1 rec) sits far below the other games and drags the averages down. Average with it vs without it: rec 5.7 vs 6.5. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 7 of 7 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 12.4 to 25.9 (median 16.4).
- Every WR1 in the sample cleared 30 receiving yards.
- WR1s scored a touchdown in 6 of 7 games (86%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.