Justin Herbert
QB
Los Angeles Chargers
This is how QBs have played against the Bills in the 2026 season.
| Wk | Team | Player | Cmp | Att | PaYd | PaTD | INT | Car | RuYd | RuTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  HOU | C.J. Stroud | 26 | 38 | 274 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 0 | 16.5 |
| 2 |  DET | Jared Goff | 26 | 38 | 327 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 29.8 |
| Average | 26.0 | 38.0 | 300.5 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 2.5 | 11.0 | 0.0 | 23.1 | ||
| Median | 26.0 | 38.0 | 300.5 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 2.5 | 11.0 | 0.0 | 23.1 | ||
| High | 26 | 38 | 327 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 15 | 0 | 29.8 | ||
| Low | 26 | 38 | 274 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 16.5 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Justin Herbert should do vs the BillsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Bills, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Justin Herbert has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Bills opponents to line them up with: the best QB they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Justin Herbert will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Bills avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Justin Herbert's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Justin Herbert usually produces.
Projected is Justin Herbert's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Bills were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Cmp | Att | PaYd | PaTD | INT | Car | RuYd | RuTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ARI | 17 | 27 | 209 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 29 | 0 | 13.3 |
| 2 | LV | 15 | 27 | 192 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 7.9 |
| 3 | BUF | 20 | 34 | 226 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 0 | 12.7 |
| 4 | SEA | 19 | 31 | 189 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 40 | 0 | 9.6 |
| 5 | DEN | 14 | 24 | 121 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 54 | 0 | 10.2 |
| 6 | KC | 22 | 37 | 204 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 26 | 0 | 8.8 |
| 8 | LA | 24 | 32 | 257 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 15 | 0 | 7.8 |
| Herbert avg | 18.7 | 30.3 | 199.7 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 4.7 | 26.1 | 0.0 | 10.0 | |
| Bills QB1 avg | 26.0 | 38.0 | 300.5 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 2.5 | 11.0 | 0.0 | 23.1 | |
| Difference | +7.3 | +7.7 | +100.8 | +2.3 | -1.4 | -2.2 | -15.1 | +0.0 | +13.1 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Herbert averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Prediction & chance to scoreJustin Herbert vs the Bills
Prediction for Justin Herbert
Nobody knows which slot Justin Herbert will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Bills.
I predict about 16.2 points for Justin Herbert if playing as a QB1. Justin Herbert has averaged 10.6 over 2 games, and the Bills have given up 23.1 to QB1s (+37% vs the league average of 16.8).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Justin Herbert scored: Wk 1 13.3, Wk 2 7.9. Average 10.6; weighted toward recent games it is 14.1.
2. The defense. Over 2 games, the Bills allowed 23.1 points to their opponent's QB1. The league average for that slot is 16.8, so that is +37%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 2 defensive games, only 40% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +15% adjustment (x1.15).
4. Result. 14.1 x 1.15 = 16.2. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Justin Herbert is to reach it as a QB1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (16.2) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 9.7 points, leaning on Justin Herbert's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical QB swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 16.
With only 2 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- QB1s have averaged 300.5 passing yards, 3.0 passing TDs and 11.0 rushing yards against the Bills across 2 games.
- The Bills allow 23.1 PPR points to QB1s, +37% versus the league average of 16.8 (ranked 5 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a favorable matchup.
- 2 of 2 games reached 15+ PPR points. Scores range from 16.5 to 29.8 (median 23.1).
- Every QB1 in the sample cleared 250 passing yards.
- QB1s scored a touchdown in 2 of 2 games (100%).
- Small sample: only 2 games so far. Treat these numbers as directional, not settled.
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.