Jaylen Waddle
WR
Denver Broncos▲ Hot
- Teammate RJ Harvey (a top target) is on IR, so Waddle may see more targets.
A hurt top target or lead back nudges the projection up a little, since their work tends to shift to teammates. QB and offensive-line flags are shown for context but do not change the number.
This is how WRs have played against the Chiefs in the 2026 season.
WR2 = the second-highest-scoring WR against Chiefs in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DEN | Courtland Sutton | 5 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 3.1 |
| 2 |  IND | Laquon Treadwell | 3 | 3 | 61 | 0 | 9.1 |
| 3 |  MIA | Chris Bell | 7 | 4 | 67 | 0 | 10.7 |
| 4 |  LV | Cody White | 4 | 2 | 36 | 0 | 7.6 |
| 6 |  LAC | KeAndre Lambert-Smith | 9 | 5 | 32 | 0 | 6.2 |
| 7 |  SEA | Cooper Kupp | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 | 4.0 |
| Average | 5.0 | 3.0 | 37.8 | 0.0 | 6.8 | ||
| Median | 4.5 | 2.5 | 34.0 | 0.0 | 6.9 | ||
| High | 9 | 5 | 67 | 0 | 10.7 | ||
| Low | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 3.1 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Jaylen Waddle should do vs the ChiefsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Chiefs, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Jaylen Waddle has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Chiefs opponents to line them up with: the best WR they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Jaylen Waddle will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Chiefs avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Jaylen Waddle's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Jaylen Waddle usually produces.
Projected is Jaylen Waddle's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Chiefs were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | KC | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1.2 |
| 2 | JAX | 10 | 8 | 138 | 0 | 21.8 |
| 3 | LA | 7 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 6.4 |
| 4 | SF | 6 | 5 | 35 | 1 | 14.5 |
| 5 | LAC | 5 | 2 | 19 | 0 | 4.8 |
| 6 | SEA | 7 | 4 | 24 | 0 | 6.4 |
| 7 | ARI | 7 | 4 | 48 | 0 | 8.8 |
| 8 | KC | 6 | 3 | 39 | 1 | 14.9 |
| Waddle avg | 6.4 | 3.6 | 39.4 | 0.3 | 9.8 | |
| Chiefs WR2 avg | 5.0 | 3.0 | 37.8 | 0.0 | 6.8 | |
| Difference | -1.4 | -0.6 | -1.5 | -0.3 | -3.1 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Waddle averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Prediction & chance to scoreJaylen Waddle vs the Chiefs
Prediction for Jaylen Waddle
Nobody knows which slot Jaylen Waddle will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Chiefs.
I predict about 8.1 points for Jaylen Waddle if playing as a WR2. Jaylen Waddle has averaged 9.1 over 7 games, and the Chiefs have given up 6.8 to WR2s (-22% vs the league average of 8.7).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Jaylen Waddle scored: Wk 1 1.2, Wk 2 21.8, Wk 3 6.4, Wk 4 14.5, Wk 5 4.8, Wk 6 6.4, Wk 7 8.8. Average 9.1; weighted toward recent games it is 9.5.
2. The defense. Over 6 games, the Chiefs allowed 6.8 points to their opponent's WR2. The league average for that slot is 8.7, so that is -22%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 6 defensive games, only 67% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a -15% adjustment (x0.85).
4. Result. 9.5 x 0.85 = 8.1. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Jaylen Waddle is to reach it as a WR2.
Why this percentage?
The projection (8.1) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 6.9 points, leaning on Jaylen Waddle's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical WR swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 8.
With only 7 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- WR2s have averaged 3.0 receptions, 37.8 receiving yards and 0.0 receiving TDs against the Chiefs across 6 games.
- The Chiefs allow 6.8 PPR points to WR2s, -22% versus the league average of 8.7 (ranked 29 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a tough matchup.
- Outlier: Week 3, Chris Bell (67 yds) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: yds 37.8 vs 32.0. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 1 of 6 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 3.1 to 10.7 (median 6.9).
- WR2s scored a touchdown in 0 of 6 games (0%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.