Noah Gray
TE
Kansas City Chiefs▲ Hot
- Teammate Travis Kelce (a top target) is questionable.
A hurt top target or lead back nudges the projection up a little, since their work tends to shift to teammates. QB and offensive-line flags are shown for context but do not change the number.
This is how TEs have played against the Jets in the 2026 season.
TE1 = the highest-scoring TE against Jets in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  TEN | Gunnar Helm | 5 | 4 | 28 | 0 | 6.8 |
| 2 |  GB | Tucker Kraft | 3 | 2 | 15 | 0 | 3.5 |
| 3 |  DET | Sam LaPorta | 4 | 3 | 44 | 0 | 7.4 |
| 4 |  CHI | Colston Loveland | 9 | 6 | 57 | 0 | 11.7 |
| 5 |  CLE | Harold Fannin Jr. | 4 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1.4 |
| 6 |  NE | Hunter Henry | 5 | 4 | 48 | 1 | 14.8 |
| 7 |  MIA | Greg Dulcich | 5 | 5 | 86 | 0 | 13.6 |
| 8 |  LV | Brock Bowers | 10 | 7 | 92 | 2 | 28.2 |
| Average | 5.6 | 4.0 | 46.8 | 0.4 | 10.9 | ||
| Median | 5.0 | 4.0 | 46.0 | 0.0 | 9.6 | ||
| High | 10 | 7 | 92 | 2 | 28.2 | ||
| Low | 3 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1.4 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Noah Gray should do vs the JetsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Jets, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Noah Gray has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Jets opponents to line them up with: the best TE they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Noah Gray will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Jets avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Noah Gray's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Noah Gray usually produces.
Projected is Noah Gray's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Jets were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DEN | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 1.5 |
| 2 | IND | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 |
| 3 | MIA | 3 | 3 | 39 | 0 | 6.9 |
| 4 | LV | 3 | 2 | 17 | 0 | 3.7 |
| 6 | LAC | 3 | 3 | 53 | 0 | 8.3 |
| 7 | SEA | 3 | 3 | 44 | 0 | 7.4 |
| 8 | DEN | 2 | 2 | 15 | 1 | 9.5 |
| Gray avg | 2.3 | 2.0 | 24.7 | 0.1 | 5.3 | |
| Jets TE1 avg | 5.6 | 4.0 | 46.8 | 0.4 | 10.9 | |
| Difference | +3.3 | +2.0 | +22.0 | +0.2 | +5.6 | |
| Projected as TE1 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 25.4 | 0.1 | 5.9 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Gray averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Start / Sit · Noah GrayGood confidence · 6.5 proj pts1/10 start
- Noah Gray averages 5.3 PPR points over 7 games (recent-weighted 6.5) and has played as the team's TE1.
- The Jets have allowed 10.9 points to TE1s over 8 games (+4% vs league). The model applies 73% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a +3% adjustment.
- Last season's average (3.0) is blended in at 22% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Game environment +10%: Vegas total 47.5, implied 28.8 points for KC (league avg 22.6); Favored by 10: leaning run-heavy late; Mild weather (65F, 9 mph wind): no weather adjustment.
- Opposing-defense injuries (+1%): Opposing starter Harrison Phillips (DL) is questionable, which helps the passing game.
- Teammate injuries (+0%): Teammate Travis Kelce (a top target) is questionable, which can mean extra looks for Gray.
- Projection: 6.5 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level TE scores about 13.5 and a top-tier one about 19.5.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Prediction & chance to scoreNoah Gray vs the Jets
Prediction for Noah Gray
Nobody knows which slot Noah Gray will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Jets.
I predict about 5.9 points for Noah Gray if playing as a TE1. Noah Gray has averaged 5.3 over 7 games, and the Jets have given up 10.9 to TE1s (+4% vs the league average of 10.5).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Noah Gray scored: Wk 1 1.5, Wk 2 0.0, Wk 3 6.9, Wk 4 3.7, Wk 6 8.3, Wk 7 7.4, Wk 8 9.5. Average 5.3; weighted toward recent games it is 5.8.
2. The defense. Over 8 games, the Jets allowed 10.9 points to their opponent's TE1. The league average for that slot is 10.5, so that is +4%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 8 defensive games, only 73% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +3% adjustment (x1.03).
4. Result. 5.8 x 1.03 = 5.9. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Noah Gray is to reach it as a TE1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (5.9) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 3.6 points, leaning on Noah Gray's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical TE swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 6.
With only 7 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- TE1s have averaged 4.0 receptions, 46.8 receiving yards and 0.4 receiving TDs against the Jets across 8 games.
- The Jets allow 10.9 PPR points to TE1s, +4% versus the league average of 10.5 (ranked 14 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a near-average matchup.
- Outlier: Week 8, Brock Bowers (28.2 pts, 7 rec, 92 yds) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 10.9 vs 8.5; rec 4.0 vs 3.6; yds 46.8 vs 40.3. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- Outlier: Week 5, Harold Fannin Jr. (1.4 pts, 1 rec, 4 yds) sits far below the other games and drags the averages down. Average with it vs without it: pts 10.9 vs 12.3; rec 4.0 vs 4.4; yds 46.8 vs 52.9. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 5 of 8 games reached 7+ PPR points. Scores range from 1.4 to 28.2 (median 9.6).
- TE1s scored a touchdown in 2 of 8 games (25%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.