Evan McPherson
K
Cincinnati Bengals
This is how Ks have played against the Jaguars in the 2026 season.
| Wk | Team | Player | FGM | FGA | 40+ | Lng | XP | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  CLE | Andre Szmyt | 1 | 1 | 0 | 26 | 1 | 4.0 |
| 2 |  DEN | Wil Lutz | 2 | 2 | 1 | 45 | 2 | 9.0 |
| 3 |  NE | Andy Borregales | 2 | 3 | 1 | 40 | 0 | 6.0 |
| Average | 1.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 37.0 | 1.0 | 6.3 | ||
| Median | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 40.0 | 1.0 | 6.0 | ||
| High | 2 | 3 | 1 | 45 | 2 | 9.0 | ||
| Low | 1 | 1 | 0 | 26 | 0 | 4.0 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed. Kicker scoring: FG 3/4/5 by distance, XP 1, missed FG under 40 yds -1.
How Evan McPherson should do vs the JaguarsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Jaguars, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Evan McPherson has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Jaguars opponents to line them up with: the best K they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Evan McPherson will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Jaguars avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Evan McPherson's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Evan McPherson usually produces.
Projected is Evan McPherson's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Jaguars were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | FGM | FGA | 40+ | Lng | XP | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TB | 4 | 4 | 2 | 58 | 3 | 19.0 |
| 2 | HOU | 2 | 2 | 2 | 57 | 2 | 12.0 |
| 3 | PIT | 2 | 2 | 1 | 50 | 3 | 11.0 |
| 4 | JAX | 1 | 1 | 0 | 29 | 2 | 5.0 |
| 5 | MIA | 1 | 1 | 0 | 26 | 4 | 7.0 |
| 7 | BAL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5.0 |
| 8 | TEN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5.0 |
| McPherson avg | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 31.4 | 3.4 | 9.1 | |
| Jaguars K1 avg | 1.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 37.0 | 1.0 | 6.3 | |
| Difference | +0.2 | +0.6 | -0.0 | +5.6 | -2.4 | -2.8 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what McPherson averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Prediction & chance to scoreEvan McPherson vs the Jaguars
Prediction for Evan McPherson
Nobody knows which slot Evan McPherson will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Jaguars.
I predict about 10.2 points for Evan McPherson if playing as a K1. Evan McPherson has averaged 14.0 over 3 games, and the Jaguars have given up 6.3 to K1s (-26% vs the league average of 8.5).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Evan McPherson scored: Wk 1 19.0, Wk 2 12.0, Wk 3 11.0. Average 14.0; weighted toward recent games it is 11.7.
2. The defense. Over 3 games, the Jaguars allowed 6.3 points to their opponent's K1. The league average for that slot is 8.5, so that is -26%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 3 defensive games, only 50% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a -13% adjustment (x0.87).
4. Result. 11.7 x 0.87 = 10.2. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Evan McPherson is to reach it as a K1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (10.2) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 5.2 points, leaning on Evan McPherson's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical K swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 10.
With only 3 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- K1s have averaged 1.7 field goals made, 2.0 field goal attempts and 1.0 extra points against the Jaguars across 3 games.
- The Jaguars allow 6.3 PPR points to K1s, -26% versus the league average of 8.5 (ranked 26 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a tough matchup.
- Outlier: Week 2, Wil Lutz (9.0 pts) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 6.3 vs 5.0. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 1 of 3 games reached 8+ PPR points. Scores range from 4.0 to 9.0 (median 6.0).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.