Ja'Marr Chase
WR
Cincinnati Bengals▲ Hot
This is how WRs have played against the Chiefs in the 2026 season.
WR2 = the second-highest-scoring WR against Chiefs in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  DEN | Courtland Sutton | 5 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 3.1 |
| 2 |  IND | Laquon Treadwell | 3 | 3 | 61 | 0 | 9.1 |
| 3 |  MIA | Chris Bell | 7 | 4 | 67 | 0 | 10.7 |
| 4 |  LV | Cody White | 4 | 2 | 36 | 0 | 7.6 |
| 6 |  LAC | KeAndre Lambert-Smith | 9 | 5 | 32 | 0 | 6.2 |
| 7 |  SEA | Cooper Kupp | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 | 4.0 |
| 8 | DEN | Courtland Sutton | 4 | 4 | 53 | 0 | 9.3 |
| Average | 4.9 | 3.1 | 40.0 | 0.0 | 7.1 | ||
| Median | 4.0 | 3.0 | 36.0 | 0.0 | 7.6 | ||
| High | 9 | 5 | 67 | 0 | 10.7 | ||
| Low | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 3.1 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Ja'Marr Chase should do vs the ChiefsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Chiefs, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Ja'Marr Chase has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Chiefs opponents to line them up with: the best WR they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Ja'Marr Chase will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Chiefs avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Ja'Marr Chase's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Ja'Marr Chase usually produces.
Projected is Ja'Marr Chase's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Chiefs were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TB | 4 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 3.2 |
| 2 | HOU | 9 | 7 | 75 | 2 | 26.5 |
| 3 | PIT | 12 | 9 | 98 | 1 | 24.8 |
| 4 | JAX | 3 | 3 | 27 | 0 | 5.7 |
| 5 | MIA | 10 | 6 | 77 | 1 | 19.7 |
| 7 | BAL | 7 | 5 | 62 | 1 | 17.2 |
| 8 | TEN | 16 | 11 | 141 | 1 | 31.1 |
| Chase avg | 8.7 | 6.1 | 70.3 | 0.9 | 18.3 | |
| Chiefs WR2 avg | 4.9 | 3.1 | 40.0 | 0.0 | 7.1 | |
| Difference | -3.9 | -3.0 | -30.3 | -0.9 | -11.2 | |
| Projected as WR2 | 7.6 | 5.3 | 61.2 | 0.7 | 17.5 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Chase averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Start / Sit · Ja'Marr ChaseGood confidence · 17.5 proj pts7/10 start
- Ja'Marr Chase averages 18.3 PPR points over 7 games (recent-weighted 20.3) and has played as the team's WR2.
- The Chiefs have allowed 7.1 points to WR2s over 7 games (-18% vs league). The model applies 70% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a -13% adjustment.
- Last season's average (19.6) is blended in at 22% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Projection: 17.5 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level WR scores about 12.2 and a top-tier one about 20.9.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Prediction & chance to scoreJa'Marr Chase vs the Chiefs
Prediction for Ja'Marr Chase
Nobody knows which slot Ja'Marr Chase will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Chiefs.
I predict about 17.5 points for Ja'Marr Chase if playing as a WR2. Ja'Marr Chase has averaged 18.3 over 7 games, and the Chiefs have given up 7.1 to WR2s (-18% vs the league average of 8.8).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Ja'Marr Chase scored: Wk 1 3.2, Wk 2 26.5, Wk 3 24.8, Wk 4 5.7, Wk 5 19.7, Wk 7 17.2, Wk 8 31.1. Average 18.3; weighted toward recent games it is 20.1.
2. The defense. Over 7 games, the Chiefs allowed 7.1 points to their opponent's WR2. The league average for that slot is 8.8, so that is -18%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 7 defensive games, only 70% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a -13% adjustment (x0.87).
4. Result. 20.1 x 0.87 = 17.5. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Ja'Marr Chase is to reach it as a WR2.
Why this percentage?
The projection (17.5) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 10.5 points, leaning on Ja'Marr Chase's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical WR swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 18.
With only 7 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- WR2s have averaged 3.1 receptions, 40.0 receiving yards and 0.0 receiving TDs against the Chiefs across 7 games.
- The Chiefs allow 7.1 PPR points to WR2s, -18% versus the league average of 8.8 (ranked 26 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a tough matchup.
- 1 of 7 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 3.1 to 10.7 (median 7.6).
- WR2s scored a touchdown in 0 of 7 games (0%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.