Amon-Ra St. Brown
WR
Detroit LionsQ
This is how WRs have played against the Falcons in the 2026 season.
WR2 = the second-highest-scoring WR against Falcons in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  PIT | DK Metcalf | 10 | 4 | 40 | 0 | 8.0 |
| 2 |  CAR | Jalen Coker | 9 | 8 | 66 | 0 | 14.6 |
| 3 |  GB | Matthew Golden | 12 | 5 | 100 | 1 | 21.0 |
| 4 |  NO | Devaughn Vele | 9 | 6 | 54 | 1 | 17.4 |
| 5 |  BAL | Rashod Bateman | 6 | 5 | 62 | 0 | 11.2 |
| 6 |  CHI | Rome Odunze | 4 | 3 | 39 | 0 | 6.9 |
| 7 |  SF | Jacob Cowing | 5 | 3 | 38 | 0 | 7.8 |
| 8 |  TB | Ted Hurst III | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 |
| Average | 7.0 | 4.3 | 49.9 | 0.3 | 10.9 | ||
| Median | 7.5 | 4.5 | 47.0 | 0.0 | 9.6 | ||
| High | 12 | 8 | 100 | 1 | 21.0 | ||
| Low | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Amon-Ra St. Brown should do vs the FalconsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Falcons, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Amon-Ra St. Brown has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Falcons opponents to line them up with: the best WR they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Amon-Ra St. Brown will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Falcons avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Amon-Ra St. Brown's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Amon-Ra St. Brown usually produces.
Projected is Amon-Ra St. Brown's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Falcons were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NO | 14 | 10 | 67 | 2 | 28.7 |
| 2 | BUF | 13 | 9 | 142 | 2 | 35.2 |
| 3 | NYJ | 8 | 4 | 19 | 1 | 11.9 |
| 4 | CAR | 11 | 8 | 75 | 0 | 15.5 |
| 5 | ARI | 11 | 6 | 69 | 0 | 12.9 |
| 7 | GB | 11 | 9 | 153 | 0 | 24.2 |
| 8 | MIN | 8 | 7 | 46 | 0 | 12.6 |
| Brown avg | 10.9 | 7.6 | 81.6 | 0.7 | 20.1 | |
| Falcons WR2 avg | 7.0 | 4.3 | 49.9 | 0.3 | 10.9 | |
| Difference | -3.9 | -3.3 | -31.7 | -0.5 | -9.3 | |
| Projected as WR2 | 12.8 | 8.9 | 95.8 | 0.8 | 21.6 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Brown averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Start / Sit · Amon-Ra St. BrownGood confidence · 21.6 proj pts10/10 start
- Amon-Ra St. Brown averages 20.1 PPR points over 7 games (recent-weighted 18.2) and has played as the team's WR2.
- The Falcons have allowed 10.9 points to WR2s over 8 games (+24% vs league). The model applies 73% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a +17% adjustment.
- Last season's average (19.1) is blended in at 22% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Injury report: Questionable. The projection assumes the player plays.
- Projection: 21.6 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level WR scores about 12.2 and a top-tier one about 20.9.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Prediction & chance to scoreAmon-Ra St. Brown vs the Falcons
Prediction for Amon-Ra St. Brown
Nobody knows which slot Amon-Ra St. Brown will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Falcons.
I predict about 21.6 points for Amon-Ra St. Brown if playing as a WR2. Amon-Ra St. Brown has averaged 20.1 over 7 games, and the Falcons have given up 10.9 to WR2s (+24% vs the league average of 8.8).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Amon-Ra St. Brown scored: Wk 1 28.7, Wk 2 35.2, Wk 3 11.9, Wk 4 15.5, Wk 5 12.9, Wk 7 24.2, Wk 8 12.6. Average 20.1; weighted toward recent games it is 18.4.
2. The defense. Over 8 games, the Falcons allowed 10.9 points to their opponent's WR2. The league average for that slot is 8.8, so that is +24%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 8 defensive games, only 73% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +17% adjustment (x1.17).
4. Result. 18.4 x 1.17 = 21.6. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Amon-Ra St. Brown is to reach it as a WR2.
Why this percentage?
The projection (21.6) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 9.3 points, leaning on Amon-Ra St. Brown's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical WR swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 22.
With only 7 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- WR2s have averaged 4.3 receptions, 49.9 receiving yards and 0.3 receiving TDs against the Falcons across 8 games.
- The Falcons allow 10.9 PPR points to WR2s, +24% versus the league average of 8.8 (ranked 4 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a favorable matchup.
- Outlier: Week 8, Ted Hurst III (0.0 pts, 0 rec, 0 yds) sits far below the other games and drags the averages down. Average with it vs without it: pts 10.9 vs 12.4; rec 4.3 vs 4.9; yds 49.9 vs 57.0. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- Outlier: Week 3, Matthew Golden (21.0 pts, 100 yds) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 10.9 vs 9.4; yds 49.9 vs 42.7. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 4 of 8 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 0.0 to 21.0 (median 9.6).
- WR2s scored a touchdown in 2 of 8 games (25%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.