Amon-Ra St. Brown
WR
Detroit LionsQ
This is how WRs have played against the Bills in the 2026 season.
WR2 = the second-highest-scoring WR against Bills in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  HOU | Jaylin Noel | 2 | 2 | 53 | 0 | 7.3 |
| Average | 2.0 | 2.0 | 53.0 | 0.0 | 7.3 | ||
| Median | 2.0 | 2.0 | 53.0 | 0.0 | 7.3 | ||
| High | 2 | 2 | 53 | 0 | 7.3 | ||
| Low | 2 | 2 | 53 | 0 | 7.3 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Amon-Ra St. Brown should do vs the BillsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Bills, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Amon-Ra St. Brown has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Bills opponents to line them up with: the best WR they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Amon-Ra St. Brown will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Bills avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Amon-Ra St. Brown's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Amon-Ra St. Brown usually produces.
Projected is Amon-Ra St. Brown's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Bills were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NO | 14 | 10 | 67 | 2 | 28.7 |
| 2 | BUF | 13 | 9 | 142 | 2 | 35.2 |
| 3 | NYJ | 8 | 4 | 19 | 1 | 11.9 |
| 4 | CAR | 11 | 8 | 75 | 0 | 15.5 |
| 5 | ARI | 11 | 6 | 69 | 0 | 12.9 |
| 7 | GB | 11 | 9 | 153 | 0 | 24.2 |
| 8 | MIN | 8 | 7 | 46 | 0 | 12.6 |
| Brown avg | 10.9 | 7.6 | 81.6 | 0.7 | 20.1 | |
| Bills WR2 avg | 2.0 | 2.0 | 53.0 | 0.0 | 7.3 | |
| Difference | -8.9 | -5.6 | -28.6 | -0.7 | -12.8 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Brown averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Prediction & chance to scoreAmon-Ra St. Brown vs the Bills
Prediction for Amon-Ra St. Brown
Nobody knows which slot Amon-Ra St. Brown will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Bills.
I predict about 21.7 points for Amon-Ra St. Brown if playing as a WR2. Amon-Ra St. Brown has averaged 28.7 over 1 game, and the Bills have given up 7.3 to WR2s (-11% vs the league average of 8.2).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Amon-Ra St. Brown scored: Wk 1 28.7. Average 28.7; weighted toward recent games it is 22.3.
2. The defense. Over 1 game, the Bills allowed 7.3 points to their opponent's WR2. The league average for that slot is 8.2, so that is -11%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 1 defensive game, only 25% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a -3% adjustment (x0.97).
4. Result. 22.3 x 0.97 = 21.7. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Amon-Ra St. Brown is to reach it as a WR2.
Why this percentage?
The projection (21.7) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 13.0 points, leaning on Amon-Ra St. Brown's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical WR swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 22.
With only 1 game of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- WR2s have averaged 2.0 receptions, 53.0 receiving yards and 0.0 receiving TDs against the Bills across 1 game.
- The Bills allow 7.3 PPR points to WR2s, -11% versus the league average of 8.2 (ranked 18 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a tough matchup.
- WR2s scored a touchdown in 0 of 1 games (0%).
- Small sample: only 1 game so far. Treat these numbers as directional, not settled.
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.