Amon-Ra St. Brown
WR
Detroit LionsQ
This is how WRs have played against the Dolphins in the 2026 season.
WR2 = the second-highest-scoring WR against Dolphins in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  LV | Jalen Nailor | 5 | 3 | 27 | 0 | 5.7 |
| 2 |  SF | Deebo Samuel Sr. | 4 | 3 | 31 | 0 | 6.5 |
| 3 |  KC | Tyquan Thornton | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 | 4.2 |
| 4 |  MIN | Myles Price | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 2.8 |
| 5 |  CIN | Tee Higgins | 4 | 2 | 22 | 0 | 4.2 |
| 7 |  NYJ | Garrett Wilson | 3 | 2 | 26 | 0 | 4.6 |
| 8 |  NE | Kyle Williams | 1 | 1 | 43 | 1 | 11.3 |
| Average | 3.0 | 2.1 | 25.3 | 0.1 | 5.6 | ||
| Median | 3.0 | 2.0 | 26.0 | 0.0 | 4.6 | ||
| High | 5 | 3 | 43 | 1 | 11.3 | ||
| Low | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 2.8 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Amon-Ra St. Brown should do vs the DolphinsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Dolphins, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Amon-Ra St. Brown has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Dolphins opponents to line them up with: the best WR they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Amon-Ra St. Brown will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Dolphins avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Amon-Ra St. Brown's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Amon-Ra St. Brown usually produces.
Projected is Amon-Ra St. Brown's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Dolphins were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NO | 14 | 10 | 67 | 2 | 28.7 |
| 2 | BUF | 13 | 9 | 142 | 2 | 35.2 |
| 3 | NYJ | 8 | 4 | 19 | 1 | 11.9 |
| 4 | CAR | 11 | 8 | 75 | 0 | 15.5 |
| 5 | ARI | 11 | 6 | 69 | 0 | 12.9 |
| 7 | GB | 11 | 9 | 153 | 0 | 24.2 |
| 8 | MIN | 8 | 7 | 46 | 0 | 12.6 |
| Brown avg | 10.9 | 7.6 | 81.6 | 0.7 | 20.1 | |
| Dolphins WR2 avg | 3.0 | 2.1 | 25.3 | 0.1 | 5.6 | |
| Difference | -7.9 | -5.4 | -56.3 | -0.6 | -14.5 | |
| Projected as WR2 | 8.1 | 5.7 | 61.1 | 0.5 | 13.8 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Brown averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Start / Sit · Amon-Ra St. BrownGood confidence · 15.7 proj pts7/10 start
- Amon-Ra St. Brown averages 20.1 PPR points over 7 games (recent-weighted 18.2) and has played as the team's WR2.
- The Dolphins have allowed 5.6 points to WR2s over 7 games (-36% vs league). The model applies 70% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a -25% adjustment.
- Last season's average (19.1) is blended in at 22% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Game environment +11%: Vegas total 50.5, implied 28.8 points for DET (league avg 22.6); Favored by 7: leaning run-heavy late; Mild weather (83F, 11 mph wind): no weather adjustment.
- Opposing-defense injuries (+3%): Opposing starter Malik Herring (DL) is questionable, which helps the passing game. Opposing starter Michael Taaffe (S) is questionable, which helps the passing game.
- Injury report: Questionable. The projection assumes the player plays.
- Projection: 15.7 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level WR scores about 12.2 and a top-tier one about 20.9.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Prediction & chance to scoreAmon-Ra St. Brown vs the Dolphins
Prediction for Amon-Ra St. Brown
Nobody knows which slot Amon-Ra St. Brown will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Dolphins.
I predict about 13.8 points for Amon-Ra St. Brown if playing as a WR2. Amon-Ra St. Brown has averaged 20.1 over 7 games, and the Dolphins have given up 5.6 to WR2s (-36% vs the league average of 8.8).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Amon-Ra St. Brown scored: Wk 1 28.7, Wk 2 35.2, Wk 3 11.9, Wk 4 15.5, Wk 5 12.9, Wk 7 24.2, Wk 8 12.6. Average 20.1; weighted toward recent games it is 18.4.
2. The defense. Over 7 games, the Dolphins allowed 5.6 points to their opponent's WR2. The league average for that slot is 8.8, so that is -36%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 7 defensive games, only 70% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a -25% adjustment (x0.75).
4. Result. 18.4 x 0.75 = 13.8. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Amon-Ra St. Brown is to reach it as a WR2.
Why this percentage?
The projection (13.8) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 9.3 points, leaning on Amon-Ra St. Brown's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical WR swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 14.
With only 7 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- WR2s have averaged 2.1 receptions, 25.3 receiving yards and 0.1 receiving TDs against the Dolphins across 7 games.
- The Dolphins allow 5.6 PPR points to WR2s, -36% versus the league average of 8.8 (ranked 32 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a tough matchup.
- Outlier: Week 8, Kyle Williams (11.3 pts) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 5.6 vs 4.7. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 1 of 7 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 2.8 to 11.3 (median 4.6).
- WR2s scored a touchdown in 1 of 7 games (14%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.