Amon-Ra St. Brown
WR
Detroit LionsQ
This is how WRs have played against the Vikings in the 2026 season.
WR2 = the second-highest-scoring WR against Vikings in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  GB | Matthew Golden | 12 | 6 | 95 | 0 | 15.5 |
| 2 |  CHI | Rome Odunze | 4 | 3 | 43 | 0 | 7.3 |
| 3 |  TB | Ted Hurst III | 3 | 1 | 40 | 1 | 11.0 |
| 4 |  MIA | Kevin Coleman Jr. | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1.3 |
| 5 |  NO | Devaughn Vele | 6 | 4 | 26 | 0 | 6.6 |
| 7 |  IND | Laquon Treadwell | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 | 3.9 |
| 8 | DET | Amon-Ra St. Brown | 8 | 7 | 46 | 0 | 12.6 |
| Average | 5.6 | 3.4 | 38.9 | 0.1 | 8.3 | ||
| Median | 4.0 | 3.0 | 40.0 | 0.0 | 7.3 | ||
| High | 12 | 7 | 95 | 1 | 15.5 | ||
| Low | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1.3 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Amon-Ra St. Brown should do vs the VikingsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Vikings, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Amon-Ra St. Brown has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Vikings opponents to line them up with: the best WR they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Amon-Ra St. Brown will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Vikings avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Amon-Ra St. Brown's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Amon-Ra St. Brown usually produces.
Projected is Amon-Ra St. Brown's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Vikings were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NO | 14 | 10 | 67 | 2 | 28.7 |
| 2 | BUF | 13 | 9 | 142 | 2 | 35.2 |
| 3 | NYJ | 8 | 4 | 19 | 1 | 11.9 |
| 4 | CAR | 11 | 8 | 75 | 0 | 15.5 |
| 5 | ARI | 11 | 6 | 69 | 0 | 12.9 |
| 7 | GB | 11 | 9 | 153 | 0 | 24.2 |
| 8 | MIN | 8 | 7 | 46 | 0 | 12.6 |
| Brown avg | 10.9 | 7.6 | 81.6 | 0.7 | 20.1 | |
| Vikings WR2 avg | 5.6 | 3.4 | 38.9 | 0.1 | 8.3 | |
| Difference | -5.3 | -4.1 | -42.7 | -0.6 | -11.8 | |
| Projected as WR2 | 10.5 | 7.3 | 78.7 | 0.7 | 17.8 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Brown averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Start / Sit · Amon-Ra St. BrownGood confidence · 17.8 proj pts7/10 start
- Amon-Ra St. Brown averages 20.1 PPR points over 7 games (recent-weighted 18.2) and has played as the team's WR2.
- The Vikings have allowed 8.3 points to WR2s over 7 games (-5% vs league). The model applies 70% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a -4% adjustment.
- Last season's average (19.1) is blended in at 22% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Injury report: Questionable. The projection assumes the player plays.
- Projection: 17.8 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level WR scores about 12.2 and a top-tier one about 20.9.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Prediction & chance to scoreAmon-Ra St. Brown vs the Vikings
Prediction for Amon-Ra St. Brown
Nobody knows which slot Amon-Ra St. Brown will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Vikings.
I predict about 17.8 points for Amon-Ra St. Brown if playing as a WR2. Amon-Ra St. Brown has averaged 20.1 over 7 games, and the Vikings have given up 8.3 to WR2s (-5% vs the league average of 8.8).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Amon-Ra St. Brown scored: Wk 1 28.7, Wk 2 35.2, Wk 3 11.9, Wk 4 15.5, Wk 5 12.9, Wk 7 24.2, Wk 8 12.6. Average 20.1; weighted toward recent games it is 18.4.
2. The defense. Over 7 games, the Vikings allowed 8.3 points to their opponent's WR2. The league average for that slot is 8.8, so that is -5%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 7 defensive games, only 70% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a -4% adjustment (x0.96).
4. Result. 18.4 x 0.96 = 17.8. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Amon-Ra St. Brown is to reach it as a WR2.
Why this percentage?
The projection (17.8) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 9.3 points, leaning on Amon-Ra St. Brown's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical WR swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 18.
With only 7 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- WR2s have averaged 3.4 receptions, 38.9 receiving yards and 0.1 receiving TDs against the Vikings across 7 games.
- The Vikings allow 8.3 PPR points to WR2s, -5% versus the league average of 8.8 (ranked 21 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a near-average matchup.
- Outlier: Week 1, Matthew Golden (15.5 pts, 6 rec, 95 yds) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 8.3 vs 7.1; rec 3.4 vs 3.0; yds 38.9 vs 29.5. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- Outlier: Week 4, Kevin Coleman Jr. (1.3 pts, 3 yds) sits far below the other games and drags the averages down. Average with it vs without it: pts 8.3 vs 9.5; yds 38.9 vs 44.8. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 3 of 7 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 1.3 to 15.5 (median 7.3).
- WR2s scored a touchdown in 1 of 7 games (14%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.