Amon-Ra St. Brown
WR
Detroit LionsQ
This is how WRs have played against the Vikings in the 2026 season.
WR2 = the second-highest-scoring WR against Vikings in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  GB | Matthew Golden | 12 | 6 | 95 | 0 | 15.5 |
| 2 |  CHI | Rome Odunze | 4 | 3 | 43 | 0 | 7.3 |
| 3 |  TB | Ted Hurst III | 3 | 1 | 40 | 1 | 11.0 |
| 4 |  MIA | Kevin Coleman Jr. | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1.3 |
| 5 |  NO | Devaughn Vele | 6 | 4 | 26 | 0 | 6.6 |
| 7 |  IND | Laquon Treadwell | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 | 3.9 |
| Average | 5.2 | 2.8 | 37.7 | 0.2 | 7.6 | ||
| Median | 4.0 | 2.5 | 33.0 | 0.0 | 6.9 | ||
| High | 12 | 6 | 95 | 1 | 15.5 | ||
| Low | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1.3 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Amon-Ra St. Brown should do vs the VikingsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Vikings, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Amon-Ra St. Brown has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Vikings opponents to line them up with: the best WR they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Amon-Ra St. Brown will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Vikings avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Amon-Ra St. Brown's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Amon-Ra St. Brown usually produces.
Projected is Amon-Ra St. Brown's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Vikings were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NO | 14 | 10 | 67 | 2 | 28.7 |
| 2 | BUF | 13 | 9 | 142 | 2 | 35.2 |
| 3 | NYJ | 8 | 4 | 19 | 1 | 11.9 |
| 4 | CAR | 11 | 8 | 75 | 0 | 15.5 |
| 5 | ARI | 11 | 6 | 69 | 0 | 12.9 |
| 7 | GB | 11 | 9 | 153 | 0 | 24.2 |
| 8 | MIN | 8 | 7 | 46 | 0 | 12.6 |
| Brown avg | 10.9 | 7.6 | 81.6 | 0.7 | 20.1 | |
| Vikings WR2 avg | 5.2 | 2.8 | 37.7 | 0.2 | 7.6 | |
| Difference | -5.7 | -4.7 | -43.9 | -0.5 | -12.5 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Brown averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Prediction & chance to scoreAmon-Ra St. Brown vs the Vikings
Prediction for Amon-Ra St. Brown
Nobody knows which slot Amon-Ra St. Brown will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Vikings.
I predict about 18.2 points for Amon-Ra St. Brown if playing as a WR2. Amon-Ra St. Brown has averaged 21.4 over 6 games, and the Vikings have given up 7.6 to WR2s (-13% vs the league average of 8.7).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Amon-Ra St. Brown scored: Wk 1 28.7, Wk 2 35.2, Wk 3 11.9, Wk 4 15.5, Wk 5 12.9, Wk 7 24.2. Average 21.4; weighted toward recent games it is 19.9.
2. The defense. Over 6 games, the Vikings allowed 7.6 points to their opponent's WR2. The league average for that slot is 8.7, so that is -13%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 6 defensive games, only 67% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a -8% adjustment (x0.92).
4. Result. 19.9 x 0.92 = 18.2. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Amon-Ra St. Brown is to reach it as a WR2.
Why this percentage?
The projection (18.2) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 9.5 points, leaning on Amon-Ra St. Brown's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical WR swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 18.
With only 6 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- WR2s have averaged 2.8 receptions, 37.7 receiving yards and 0.2 receiving TDs against the Vikings across 6 games.
- The Vikings allow 7.6 PPR points to WR2s, -13% versus the league average of 8.7 (ranked 24 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a tough matchup.
- Outlier: Week 1, Matthew Golden (15.5 pts, 6 rec, 95 yds) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 7.6 vs 6.0; rec 2.8 vs 2.2; yds 37.7 vs 26.2. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- Outlier: Week 4, Kevin Coleman Jr. (1.3 pts, 3 yds) sits far below the other games and drags the averages down. Average with it vs without it: pts 7.6 vs 8.9; yds 37.7 vs 44.6. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 2 of 6 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 1.3 to 15.5 (median 6.9).
- WR2s scored a touchdown in 1 of 6 games (17%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.