Josh Palmer
WR
Buffalo Bills
- Teammate Dalton Kincaid (a top target) is questionable.
- Teammate DJ Moore (a top target) is questionable.
A hurt top target or lead back nudges the projection up a little, since their work tends to shift to teammates. QB and offensive-line flags are shown for context but do not change the number.
This is how WRs have played against the Raiders in the 2026 season.
WR3 = the third-highest-scoring WR against Raiders in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  MIA | Chris Bell | 2 | 1 | 25 | 0 | 3.5 |
| 2 |  LAC | Quentin Johnston | 5 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 2.4 |
| 3 |  NO | Bryce Lance | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 |
| 4 |  KC | Jalen Royals | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 |
| 5 |  NE | Efton Chism III | 6 | 5 | 57 | 0 | 10.9 |
| Average | 3.6 | 1.4 | 17.8 | 0.0 | 3.4 | ||
| Median | 3.0 | 1.0 | 7.0 | 0.0 | 2.4 | ||
| High | 6 | 5 | 57 | 0 | 10.9 | ||
| Low | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Josh Palmer should do vs the RaidersSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Raiders, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Josh Palmer has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Raiders opponents to line them up with: the best WR they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Josh Palmer will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Raiders avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Josh Palmer's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Josh Palmer usually produces.
Projected is Josh Palmer's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Raiders were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | HOU | 2 | 1 | 34 | 1 | 10.4 |
| 2 | DET | 3 | 1 | 43 | 1 | 11.3 |
| 4 | NE | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1.3 |
| 6 | LV | 2 | 1 | 37 | 0 | 4.7 |
| 8 | BAL | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 |
| Palmer avg | 2.4 | 0.8 | 23.4 | 0.4 | 5.5 | |
| Raiders WR3 avg | 3.6 | 1.4 | 17.8 | 0.0 | 3.4 | |
| Difference | +1.2 | +0.6 | -5.6 | -0.4 | -2.2 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Palmer averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Prediction & chance to scoreJosh Palmer vs the Raiders
Prediction for Josh Palmer
Nobody knows which slot Josh Palmer will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Raiders.
I predict about 5.1 points for Josh Palmer if playing as a WR3. Josh Palmer has averaged 7.7 over 3 games, and the Raiders have given up 3.4 to WR3s (-23% vs the league average of 4.4).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Josh Palmer scored: Wk 1 10.4, Wk 2 11.3, Wk 4 1.3. Average 7.7; weighted toward recent games it is 5.9.
2. The defense. Over 5 games, the Raiders allowed 3.4 points to their opponent's WR3. The league average for that slot is 4.4, so that is -23%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 5 defensive games, only 63% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a -15% adjustment (x0.85).
4. Result. 5.9 x 0.85 = 5.1. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Josh Palmer is to reach it as a WR3.
Why this percentage?
The projection (5.1) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 4.3 points, leaning on Josh Palmer's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical WR swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 5.
With only 3 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- WR3s have averaged 1.4 receptions, 17.8 receiving yards and 0.0 receiving TDs against the Raiders across 5 games.
- The Raiders allow 3.4 PPR points to WR3s, -23% versus the league average of 4.4 (ranked 23 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a tough matchup.
- Outlier: Week 5, Efton Chism III (10.9 pts, 5 rec, 57 yds) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 3.4 vs 1.5; rec 1.4 vs 0.5; yds 17.8 vs 8.0. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 1 of 5 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 0.0 to 10.9 (median 2.4).
- WR3s scored a touchdown in 0 of 5 games (0%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.