Javonte Williams
RB
Dallas Cowboys
- Teammate George Pickens (a top target) is questionable.
A hurt top target or lead back nudges the projection up a little, since their work tends to shift to teammates. QB and offensive-line flags are shown for context but do not change the number.
This is how RBs have played against the Texans in the 2026 season.
RB1 = the highest-scoring RB against Texans in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  BUF | James Cook | 13 | 57 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 12 | 0 | 9.9 |
| 2 |  CIN | Chase Brown | 20 | 80 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 11.2 |
| 3 |  IND | Jonathan Taylor | 23 | 68 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 9.2 |
| Average | 18.7 | 68.3 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 2.7 | 6.0 | 0.0 | 10.1 | ||
| Median | 20.0 | 68.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 9.9 | ||
| High | 23 | 80 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 12 | 0 | 11.2 | ||
| Low | 13 | 57 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 9.2 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Javonte Williams should do vs the TexansSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Texans, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Javonte Williams has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Texans opponents to line them up with: the best RB they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Javonte Williams will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Texans avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Javonte Williams's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Javonte Williams usually produces.
Projected is Javonte Williams's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Texans were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NYG | 12 | 41 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 31 | 1 | 24.2 |
| 2 | WAS | 12 | 30 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 20 | 0 | 8.0 |
| 3 | BAL | 19 | 98 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 18.3 |
| 4 | HOU | 19 | 62 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 21 | 0 | 31.3 |
| 5 | TB | 12 | 45 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 17 | 0 | 14.2 |
| 6 | GB | 11 | 41 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 13.0 |
| 7 | PHI | 25 | 155 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21.5 |
| 8 | ARI | 24 | 56 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6.7 |
| Williams avg | 16.8 | 66.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 13.0 | 0.1 | 17.1 | |
| Texans RB1 avg | 18.7 | 68.3 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 2.7 | 6.0 | 0.0 | 10.1 | |
| Difference | +1.9 | +2.3 | -1.0 | +1.0 | +0.2 | -7.0 | -0.1 | -7.0 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Williams averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Prediction & chance to scoreJavonte Williams vs the Texans
Prediction for Javonte Williams
Nobody knows which slot Javonte Williams will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Texans.
I predict about 13.2 points for Javonte Williams if playing as a RB1. Javonte Williams has averaged 16.8 over 3 games, and the Texans have given up 10.1 to RB1s (-34% vs the league average of 15.4).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Javonte Williams scored: Wk 1 24.2, Wk 2 8.0, Wk 3 18.3. Average 16.8; weighted toward recent games it is 16.0.
2. The defense. Over 3 games, the Texans allowed 10.1 points to their opponent's RB1. The league average for that slot is 15.4, so that is -34%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 3 defensive games, only 50% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a -17% adjustment (x0.83).
4. Result. 16.0 x 0.83 = 13.2. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Javonte Williams is to reach it as a RB1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (13.2) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 8.1 points, leaning on Javonte Williams's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical RB swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 13.
With only 3 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- RB1s have averaged 18.7 carries, 68.3 rushing yards and 2.7 receptions against the Texans across 3 games.
- The Texans allow 10.1 PPR points to RB1s, -34% versus the league average of 15.4 (ranked 28 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a tough matchup.
- 1 of 3 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 9.2 to 11.2 (median 9.9).
- Every RB1 in the sample cleared 50 rushing yards.
- RB1s scored a touchdown in 0 of 3 games (0%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.