Jaylen Warren
RB
Pittsburgh Steelers
This is how RBs have played against the Texans in the 2026 season.
RB1 = the highest-scoring RB against Texans in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  BUF | James Cook | 13 | 57 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 12 | 0 | 9.9 |
| 2 |  CIN | Chase Brown | 20 | 80 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 11.2 |
| 3 |  IND | Jonathan Taylor | 23 | 68 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 9.2 |
| 4 |  DAL | Javonte Williams | 19 | 62 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 21 | 0 | 31.3 |
| 5 |  TEN | Tyjae Spears | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 9 | 28 | 0 | 9.8 |
| 6 |  JAX | Bhayshul Tuten | 12 | 39 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 48 | 2 | 24.7 |
| 7 |  NYG | Cam Skattebo | 17 | 124 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 19.1 |
| Average | 15.1 | 61.4 | 0.6 | 4.4 | 3.9 | 16.0 | 0.3 | 16.5 | ||
| Median | 17.0 | 62.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 12.0 | 0.0 | 11.2 | ||
| High | 23 | 124 | 3 | 9 | 9 | 48 | 2 | 31.3 | ||
| Low | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 9.2 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Jaylen Warren should do vs the TexansSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Texans, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Jaylen Warren has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Texans opponents to line them up with: the best RB they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Jaylen Warren will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Texans avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Jaylen Warren's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Jaylen Warren usually produces.
Projected is Jaylen Warren's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Texans were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ATL | 10 | 46 | 0 | 6 | 5 | 27 | 0 | 10.3 |
| 2 | NE | 11 | 43 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 34 | 0 | 9.7 |
| 3 | CIN | 17 | 127 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 49 | 0 | 20.6 |
| 4 | CLE | 17 | 93 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 33 | 0 | 15.6 |
| 5 | IND | 15 | 101 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 87 | 1 | 36.8 |
| 6 | TB | 14 | 50 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 28 | 0 | 9.8 |
| 7 | NO | 18 | 101 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 36 | 0 | 16.7 |
| 8 | CLE | 17 | 143 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21.3 |
| Warren avg | 14.9 | 88.0 | 0.3 | 4.5 | 3.1 | 36.8 | 0.1 | 17.6 | |
| Texans RB1 avg | 15.1 | 61.4 | 0.6 | 4.4 | 3.9 | 16.0 | 0.3 | 16.5 | |
| Difference | +0.3 | -26.6 | +0.3 | -0.1 | +0.7 | -20.8 | +0.2 | -1.1 | |
| Projected as RB1 | 15.1 | 89.4 | 0.3 | 4.6 | 3.2 | 37.3 | 0.1 | 17.9 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Warren averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Start / Sit · Jaylen WarrenGood confidence · 17.9 proj pts7/10 start
- Jaylen Warren averages 17.6 PPR points over 8 games (recent-weighted 18.7) and has played as the team's RB1.
- The Texans have allowed 16.5 points to RB1s over 7 games (+2% vs league). The model applies 70% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a +2% adjustment.
- Last season's average (13.6) is blended in at 20% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Projection: 17.9 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level RB scores about 13.1 and a top-tier one about 20.9.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Prediction & chance to scoreJaylen Warren vs the Texans
Prediction for Jaylen Warren
Nobody knows which slot Jaylen Warren will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Texans.
I predict about 17.9 points for Jaylen Warren if playing as a RB1. Jaylen Warren has averaged 17.6 over 8 games, and the Texans have given up 16.5 to RB1s (+2% vs the league average of 16.1).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Jaylen Warren scored: Wk 1 10.3, Wk 2 9.7, Wk 3 20.6, Wk 4 15.6, Wk 5 36.8, Wk 6 9.8, Wk 7 16.7, Wk 8 21.3. Average 17.6; weighted toward recent games it is 17.6.
2. The defense. Over 7 games, the Texans allowed 16.5 points to their opponent's RB1. The league average for that slot is 16.1, so that is +2%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 7 defensive games, only 70% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +2% adjustment (x1.02).
4. Result. 17.6 x 1.02 = 17.9. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Jaylen Warren is to reach it as a RB1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (17.9) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 9.0 points, leaning on Jaylen Warren's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical RB swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 18.
With only 8 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- RB1s have averaged 15.1 carries, 61.4 rushing yards and 3.9 receptions against the Texans across 7 games.
- The Texans allow 16.5 PPR points to RB1s, +2% versus the league average of 16.1 (ranked 16 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a near-average matchup.
- Outlier: Week 5, Tyjae Spears (2 car, 0 rush yds) sits far below the other games and drags the averages down. Average with it vs without it: car 15.1 vs 17.3; rush yds 61.4 vs 71.7. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- Outlier: Week 4, Javonte Williams (31.3 pts) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 16.5 vs 14.0. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 4 of 7 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 9.2 to 31.3 (median 11.2).
- RB1s scored a touchdown in 3 of 7 games (43%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.