Chris Olave
WR
New Orleans Saints▼ Cold
- Teammate Alvin Kamara (a top target) is questionable.
A hurt top target or lead back nudges the projection up a little, since their work tends to shift to teammates. QB and offensive-line flags are shown for context but do not change the number.
This is how WRs have played against the Raiders in the 2026 season.
WR1 = the highest-scoring WR against Raiders in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  MIA | Caleb Douglas | 7 | 5 | 94 | 0 | 14.4 |
| 2 |  LAC | Ladd McConkey | 3 | 3 | 35 | 0 | 6.5 |
| Average | 5.0 | 4.0 | 64.5 | 0.0 | 10.4 | ||
| Median | 5.0 | 4.0 | 64.5 | 0.0 | 10.4 | ||
| High | 7 | 5 | 94 | 0 | 14.4 | ||
| Low | 3 | 3 | 35 | 0 | 6.5 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Chris Olave should do vs the RaidersSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Raiders, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Chris Olave has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Raiders opponents to line them up with: the best WR they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Chris Olave will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Raiders avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Chris Olave's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Chris Olave usually produces.
Projected is Chris Olave's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Raiders were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DET | 13 | 10 | 182 | 0 | 28.2 |
| 2 | BAL | 10 | 8 | 86 | 1 | 22.6 |
| 3 | LV | 13 | 9 | 107 | 0 | 19.7 |
| 4 | ATL | 12 | 8 | 116 | 0 | 19.6 |
| 5 | MIN | 6 | 4 | 46 | 0 | 8.6 |
| 6 | NYG | 7 | 4 | 43 | 1 | 14.3 |
| 7 | PIT | 10 | 6 | 56 | 0 | 11.6 |
| Olave avg | 10.1 | 7.0 | 90.9 | 0.3 | 17.8 | |
| Raiders WR1 avg | 5.0 | 4.0 | 64.5 | 0.0 | 10.4 | |
| Difference | -5.1 | -3.0 | -26.4 | -0.3 | -7.3 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Olave averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Prediction & chance to scoreChris Olave vs the Raiders
Prediction for Chris Olave
Nobody knows which slot Chris Olave will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Raiders.
I predict about 17.7 points for Chris Olave if playing as a WR1. Chris Olave has averaged 25.4 over 2 games, and the Raiders have given up 10.4 to WR1s (-39% vs the league average of 17.1).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Chris Olave scored: Wk 1 28.2, Wk 2 22.6. Average 25.4; weighted toward recent games it is 20.9.
2. The defense. Over 2 games, the Raiders allowed 10.4 points to their opponent's WR1. The league average for that slot is 17.1, so that is -39%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 2 defensive games, only 40% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a -16% adjustment (x0.84).
4. Result. 20.9 x 0.84 = 17.7. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Chris Olave is to reach it as a WR1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (17.7) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 10.6 points, leaning on Chris Olave's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical WR swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 18.
With only 2 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- WR1s have averaged 4.0 receptions, 64.5 receiving yards and 0.0 receiving TDs against the Raiders across 2 games.
- The Raiders allow 10.4 PPR points to WR1s, -39% versus the league average of 17.1 (ranked 28 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a tough matchup.
- 1 of 2 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 6.5 to 14.4 (median 10.4).
- Every WR1 in the sample cleared 30 receiving yards.
- WR1s scored a touchdown in 0 of 2 games (0%).
- Small sample: only 2 games so far. Treat these numbers as directional, not settled.
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.