Greg Dulcich
TE
Miami Dolphins▲ Hot
This is how TEs have played against the Lions in the 2026 season.
TE1 = the highest-scoring TE against Lions in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  NO | Juwan Johnson | 7 | 3 | 54 | 1 | 14.4 |
| 2 |  BUF | Dalton Kincaid | 8 | 7 | 95 | 1 | 22.5 |
| 3 |  NYJ | Kenyon Sadiq | 8 | 7 | 105 | 1 | 23.5 |
| 4 |  CAR | Darren Waller | 6 | 3 | 36 | 0 | 6.6 |
| 5 |  ARI | Trey McBride | 10 | 9 | 66 | 1 | 21.6 |
| 7 |  GB | Tucker Kraft | 6 | 4 | 48 | 1 | 14.8 |
| 8 |  MIN | T.J. Hockenson | 5 | 4 | 58 | 1 | 15.8 |
| Average | 7.1 | 5.3 | 66.0 | 0.9 | 17.0 | ||
| Median | 7.0 | 4.0 | 58.0 | 1.0 | 15.8 | ||
| High | 10 | 9 | 105 | 1 | 23.5 | ||
| Low | 5 | 3 | 36 | 0 | 6.6 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Greg Dulcich should do vs the LionsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Lions, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Greg Dulcich has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Lions opponents to line them up with: the best TE they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Greg Dulcich will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Lions avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Greg Dulcich's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Greg Dulcich usually produces.
Projected is Greg Dulcich's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Lions were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LV | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 | 3.8 |
| 2 | SF | 3 | 2 | 17 | 0 | 3.7 |
| 3 | KC | 7 | 5 | 55 | 0 | 10.5 |
| 5 | CIN | 5 | 4 | 37 | 0 | 9.7 |
| 7 | NYJ | 5 | 5 | 86 | 0 | 13.6 |
| 8 | NE | 6 | 4 | 43 | 0 | 8.3 |
| Dulcich avg | 4.7 | 3.7 | 42.7 | 0.0 | 8.3 | |
| Lions TE1 avg | 7.1 | 5.3 | 66.0 | 0.9 | 17.0 | |
| Difference | +2.5 | +1.6 | +23.3 | +0.9 | +8.8 | |
| Projected as TE1 | 6.1 | 4.8 | 55.5 | 0.0 | 11.1 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Dulcich averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Start / Sit · Greg DulcichGood confidence · 11.6 proj pts5/10 start
- Greg Dulcich averages 8.3 PPR points over 6 games (recent-weighted 9.1) and has played as the team's TE1.
- The Lions have allowed 17.0 points to TE1s over 7 games (+62% vs league). The model applies 70% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a +30% adjustment.
- Last season's average (7.0) is blended in at 25% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Game environment +2%: Vegas total 50.5, implied 21.8 points for MIA (league avg 22.6); Underdog by 7: likely to pass more while trailing; Mild weather (84F, 11 mph wind): no weather adjustment.
- Opposing-defense injuries (+3%): Opposing starter Jack Campbell (LB) is doubtful, which helps the passing game. Opposing starter D.J. Reed (CB) is questionable, which helps the passing game.
- Projection: 11.6 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level TE scores about 13.5 and a top-tier one about 19.5.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Prediction & chance to scoreGreg Dulcich vs the Lions
Prediction for Greg Dulcich
Nobody knows which slot Greg Dulcich will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Lions.
I predict about 11.1 points for Greg Dulcich if playing as a TE1. Greg Dulcich has averaged 8.3 over 6 games, and the Lions have given up 17.0 to TE1s (+62% vs the league average of 10.5).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Greg Dulcich scored: Wk 1 3.8, Wk 2 3.7, Wk 3 10.5, Wk 5 9.7, Wk 7 13.6, Wk 8 8.3. Average 8.3; weighted toward recent games it is 8.6.
2. The defense. Over 7 games, the Lions allowed 17.0 points to their opponent's TE1. The league average for that slot is 10.5, so that is +62%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 7 defensive games, only 70% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +30% adjustment (x1.30).
4. Result. 8.6 x 1.30 = 11.1. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Greg Dulcich is to reach it as a TE1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (11.1) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 4.5 points, leaning on Greg Dulcich's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical TE swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 11.
With only 6 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- TE1s have averaged 5.3 receptions, 66.0 receiving yards and 0.9 receiving TDs against the Lions across 7 games.
- The Lions allow 17.0 PPR points to TE1s, +62% versus the league average of 10.5 (ranked 2 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a favorable matchup.
- Outlier: Week 3, Kenyon Sadiq (105 yds) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: yds 66.0 vs 59.5. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- Outlier: Week 5, Trey McBride (9 rec) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: rec 5.3 vs 4.7. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 6 of 7 games reached 7+ PPR points. Scores range from 6.6 to 23.5 (median 15.8).
- Every TE1 in the sample cleared 30 receiving yards.
- TE1s scored a touchdown in 6 of 7 games (86%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.