Deven Thompkins
WR
Las Vegas Raiders
This is how WRs have played against the Rams in the 2026 season.
WR3 = the third-highest-scoring WR against Rams in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  SF | Demarcus Robinson | 3 | 2 | 50 | 1 | 13.0 |
| 2 |  NYG | Malik Nabers | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1.1 |
| 3 |  DEN | Jaylen Waddle | 7 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 6.4 |
| 4 |  PHI | Dontayvion Wicks | 5 | 3 | 18 | 0 | 4.8 |
| 5 |  BUF | Skyler Bell | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 |
| 6 |  ARI | Jalen Brooks | 3 | 2 | 30 | 0 | 5.0 |
| Average | 4.0 | 1.7 | 18.2 | 0.2 | 5.0 | ||
| Median | 3.5 | 2.0 | 14.0 | 0.0 | 4.9 | ||
| High | 7 | 3 | 50 | 1 | 13.0 | ||
| Low | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Deven Thompkins should do vs the RamsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Rams, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Deven Thompkins has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Rams opponents to line them up with: the best WR they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Deven Thompkins will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Rams avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Deven Thompkins's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Deven Thompkins usually produces.
Projected is Deven Thompkins's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Rams were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | NE | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 1.8 |
| Thompkins avg | 1.0 | 1.0 | 8.0 | 0.0 | 1.8 | |
| Rams WR3 avg | 4.0 | 1.7 | 18.2 | 0.2 | 5.0 | |
| Difference | +3.0 | +0.7 | +10.2 | +0.2 | +3.3 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Thompkins averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Prediction & chance to scoreDeven Thompkins vs the Rams
Prediction for Deven Thompkins
Nobody knows which slot Deven Thompkins will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Rams.
I predict about 2.0 points for Deven Thompkins if playing as a WR3. Deven Thompkins has averaged 1.8 over 1 game, and the Rams have given up 5.0 to WR3s (+14% vs the league average of 4.4).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Deven Thompkins scored: Wk 5 1.8. Average 1.8; weighted toward recent games it is 1.8.
2. The defense. Over 6 games, the Rams allowed 5.0 points to their opponent's WR3. The league average for that slot is 4.4, so that is +14%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 6 defensive games, only 67% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +9% adjustment (x1.09).
4. Result. 1.8 x 1.09 = 2.0. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Deven Thompkins is to reach it as a WR3.
Why this percentage?
The projection (2.0) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 1.2 points, leaning on Deven Thompkins's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical WR swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 2.
With only 1 game of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- WR3s have averaged 1.7 receptions, 18.2 receiving yards and 0.2 receiving TDs against the Rams across 6 games.
- The Rams allow 5.0 PPR points to WR3s, +14% versus the league average of 4.4 (ranked 10 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a favorable matchup.
- Outlier: Week 1, Demarcus Robinson (13.0 pts, 50 yds) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 5.0 vs 3.5; yds 18.2 vs 11.8. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- Outlier: Week 5, Skyler Bell (0.0 pts) sits far below the other games and drags the averages down. Average with it vs without it: pts 5.0 vs 6.1. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 1 of 6 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 0.0 to 13.0 (median 4.9).
- WR3s scored a touchdown in 1 of 6 games (17%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.