John Metchie III
WR
Carolina Panthers
This is how WRs have played against the Broncos in the 2026 season.
WR2 = the second-highest-scoring WR against Broncos in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  KC | Xavier Worthy | 6 | 3 | 18 | 0 | 4.8 |
| 2 |  JAX | Brian Thomas Jr. | 8 | 3 | 40 | 0 | 7.0 |
| 3 |  LA | Konata Mumpfield | 8 | 4 | 93 | 1 | 19.3 |
| 4 |  SF | Mike Evans | 8 | 5 | 76 | 0 | 12.6 |
| 5 |  LAC | Tre Harris | 4 | 2 | 16 | 0 | 3.6 |
| 6 |  SEA | Rashid Shaheed | 8 | 5 | 66 | 0 | 11.8 |
| 7 |  ARI | Jalen Brooks | 6 | 1 | 35 | 0 | 4.5 |
| 8 | KC | Xavier Worthy | 6 | 3 | 13 | 0 | 4.3 |
| Average | 6.8 | 3.3 | 44.6 | 0.1 | 8.5 | ||
| Median | 7.0 | 3.0 | 37.5 | 0.0 | 5.9 | ||
| High | 8 | 5 | 93 | 1 | 19.3 | ||
| Low | 4 | 1 | 13 | 0 | 3.6 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How John Metchie III should do vs the BroncosSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Broncos, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game John Metchie III has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Broncos opponents to line them up with: the best WR they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot John Metchie III will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Broncos avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus John Metchie III's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than John Metchie III usually produces.
Projected is John Metchie III's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Broncos were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | CLE | 5 | 2 | 19 | 1 | 9.9 |
| 4 | DET | 5 | 3 | 37 | 0 | 6.7 |
| 6 | PHI | 3 | 2 | 24 | 0 | 4.4 |
| 7 | TB | 4 | 2 | 20 | 0 | 4.0 |
| 8 | GB | 3 | 3 | 14 | 0 | 4.4 |
| III avg | 4.0 | 2.4 | 22.8 | 0.2 | 5.9 | |
| Broncos WR2 avg | 6.8 | 3.3 | 44.6 | 0.1 | 8.5 | |
| Difference | +2.8 | +0.9 | +21.8 | -0.1 | +2.6 | |
| Projected as WR2 | 3.9 | 2.3 | 22.3 | 0.2 | 5.4 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what III averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Start / Sit · John Metchie IIIGood confidence · 5.3 proj pts1/10 start
- John Metchie III averages 5.9 PPR points over 5 games (recent-weighted 5.3) and has played as the team's WR2.
- The Broncos have allowed 8.5 points to WR2s over 8 games (-3% vs league). The model applies 73% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a -2% adjustment.
- Last season's average (6.0) is blended in at 29% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Game environment -4%: Vegas total 44.5, implied 21.0 points for CAR (league avg 22.6); Mild weather (64F, 5 mph wind): no weather adjustment.
- Opposing-defense injuries (+2%): Opposing starter Eyioma Uwazurike (DL) is questionable, which helps the passing game. Opposing starter Talanoa Hufanga (S) is questionable, which helps the passing game.
- Projection: 5.3 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level WR scores about 12.2 and a top-tier one about 20.9.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Prediction & chance to scoreJohn Metchie III vs the Broncos
Prediction for John Metchie III
Nobody knows which slot John Metchie III will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Broncos.
I predict about 5.4 points for John Metchie III if playing as a WR2. John Metchie III has averaged 5.9 over 5 games, and the Broncos have given up 8.5 to WR2s (-3% vs the league average of 8.8).
How this projection is built
1. The player. John Metchie III scored: Wk 3 9.9, Wk 4 6.7, Wk 6 4.4, Wk 7 4.0, Wk 8 4.4. Average 5.9; weighted toward recent games it is 5.5.
2. The defense. Over 8 games, the Broncos allowed 8.5 points to their opponent's WR2. The league average for that slot is 8.8, so that is -3%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 8 defensive games, only 73% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a -2% adjustment (x0.98).
4. Result. 5.5 x 0.98 = 5.4. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely John Metchie III is to reach it as a WR2.
Why this percentage?
The projection (5.4) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 2.6 points, leaning on John Metchie III's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical WR swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 5.
With only 5 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- WR2s have averaged 3.3 receptions, 44.6 receiving yards and 0.1 receiving TDs against the Broncos across 8 games.
- The Broncos allow 8.5 PPR points to WR2s, -3% versus the league average of 8.8 (ranked 19 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a near-average matchup.
- Outlier: Week 3, Konata Mumpfield (19.3 pts, 93 yds) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 8.5 vs 6.9; yds 44.6 vs 37.7. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- Outlier: Week 4, Mike Evans (76 yds) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: yds 44.6 vs 40.1. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 3 of 8 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 3.6 to 19.3 (median 5.9).
- WR2s scored a touchdown in 1 of 8 games (13%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.