Alec Pierce
WR
Indianapolis ColtsIR
This is how WRs have played against the Commanders in the 2026 season.
WR2 = the second-highest-scoring WR against Commanders in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  PHI | DeVonta Smith | 6 | 3 | 53 | 0 | 8.3 |
| 2 |  DAL | George Pickens | 8 | 6 | 40 | 0 | 10.0 |
| 3 |  SEA | Cooper Kupp | 5 | 4 | 46 | 1 | 14.6 |
| Average | 6.3 | 4.3 | 46.3 | 0.3 | 11.0 | ||
| Median | 6.0 | 4.0 | 46.0 | 0.0 | 10.0 | ||
| High | 8 | 6 | 53 | 1 | 14.6 | ||
| Low | 5 | 3 | 40 | 0 | 8.3 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Alec Pierce should do vs the CommandersSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Commanders, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Alec Pierce has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Commanders opponents to line them up with: the best WR they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Alec Pierce will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Commanders avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Alec Pierce's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Alec Pierce usually produces.
Projected is Alec Pierce's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Commanders were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BAL | 6 | 4 | 61 | 0 | 10.1 |
| 2 | KC | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 2.1 |
| Pierce avg | 3.5 | 2.5 | 36.0 | 0.0 | 6.1 | |
| Commanders WR2 avg | 6.3 | 4.3 | 46.3 | 0.3 | 11.0 | |
| Difference | +2.8 | +1.8 | +10.3 | +0.3 | +4.9 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Pierce averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Prediction & chance to scoreAlec Pierce vs the Commanders
Prediction for Alec Pierce
Nobody knows which slot Alec Pierce will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Commanders.
I predict about 10.1 points for Alec Pierce if playing as a WR2. Alec Pierce has averaged 6.1 over 2 games, and the Commanders have given up 11.0 to WR2s (+26% vs the league average of 8.7).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Alec Pierce scored: Wk 1 10.1, Wk 2 2.1. Average 6.1; weighted toward recent games it is 8.9.
2. The defense. Over 3 games, the Commanders allowed 11.0 points to their opponent's WR2. The league average for that slot is 8.7, so that is +26%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 3 defensive games, only 50% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +13% adjustment (x1.13).
4. Result. 8.9 x 1.13 = 10.1. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Alec Pierce is to reach it as a WR2.
Why this percentage?
The projection (10.1) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 6.1 points, leaning on Alec Pierce's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical WR swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 10.
With only 2 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- WR2s have averaged 4.3 receptions, 46.3 receiving yards and 0.3 receiving TDs against the Commanders across 3 games.
- The Commanders allow 11.0 PPR points to WR2s, +26% versus the league average of 8.7 (ranked 7 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a favorable matchup.
- 2 of 3 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 8.3 to 14.6 (median 10.0).
- Every WR2 in the sample cleared 40 receiving yards.
- WR2s scored a touchdown in 1 of 3 games (33%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.